Get the latest election information as it becomes available, without having to watch the box
Tonight Scoop allows you to track each electorate as the votes roll in, with their Election Map designed by Keith Ng. Cleverly, you can also compare tonight's results to 2008. Hours of fun to be had.
Happy election night!
A million New Zealanders couldn't be bothered.....I wonder how many of those polled over the preceding weeks didn't get down to the polling station today?...does that explain the poll of polls drifting off course at the final count?
It looks like the poll of polls was mostly thrown off by NZ First, and Salmond himself admitted that that was very variable between polls. I don't think there's any way for polls to keep up with a surge like that, and since the poll of polls weeds out outlying polls (i.e. the most recent, until they are corroborated by further polls) it seems even less responsive to a late surge. Or so it seems to me.It also never seemed to register either the Conservative party, or Mana, while continuing to display the Progressives 0.0%... Which I think might just indicate that I have no idea how to access it properly.
I'm not too sure that Chris is correct about the polls. This is not by any stretch the first time that pollsters and the political media have got it so wrong with NZ First and it is more than time that some of these people stood back and listened to what Winston has been saying.
The other factor is that there is, in some quarters, a belligerent and nasty attitude taken when interviewing Peters. This morning's interview on Newstalk ZB with Barry Soper was nothing short of a disgrace. While it might be considered smart or fashionable to refer to Winston's voters as 50 year old male losers still living with their mother - not Soper's comment I hasten to add - there were many thousands of NZ'ers that voted for Peters on the strength of the main elements of his party's policies. No separatist race-based initiatives and no sale of assets. It was clear from this morning that he may well have some interesting facts regarding South Canterbury Finance that will be revealed.
My main point however is that I don't really believe that it was all that difficult to see a resurgance of support for NZ First at all - just a case of listening to the right sort of cross-section of society.
So if National lose one seat to the Greens when the special votes are counted, and one of the national MPs is the speaker, and the Maori party don't side with National, where are we left? 60-60 with the speaker casting the deciding vote?
You raise an interesting scenario however unless convention has changed again, the speaker dosen't cast a deciding vote in the NZ House of Representatives. He or she votes as an ordinary member so if there is a tie, then the bill is considered defeated.
Back in 1986 with the Homosexual Law Reform Bill it was going to be very close and the then speaker Gerald Wall couldn't cast a deciding vote.....which was probably just as well had there been a tie and the rules different....Old Wallie back in the seventies wanted to make it a crime with a custodial sentence just to talk about homosexuality being "natural" to under twenty year olds.......
So if your scenario plays out, stranger things have happened, then I guess we can take lessons from across the ditch with a hung parliament.....But then there's always Winston !!!!
Thanks Steve, I was showing my ignorance of the parliamentary system there. I swear I remember a fuss being made about the speaker's vote not too many elections ago... Anyhow, I can't believe how close this election was (in terms of the right-wing parties getting a majority) and yet the election coverage on the night was so blase. I mean, they got there by probably only one seat. That was a cliff-hanger wasn't it? On a hypothetical note, how well would National govern as a minority government? Didn't Labour govern as a minority government not too long ago? Can anyone remind me how easy that was for them?
You can certainly govern as a minority party – effectively, National will be. It's just a matter of getting enough votes for confidence and supply votes to ensure you have the confidence of the House and can keep the money coming.
Russell, the main media polls were mostly very accurate (Colmar-Brunton taking top honours this time round) – almost all inside their margin of error and with accurate trends.
Yes, NZF was the hardest to pick. Digipoll got closest on NZF and it was the latest, which is one of several factors suggesting the swing was late and driven by concerns about National governing alone.
I think the polls were probably pretty accurate re NZF, until that late swing.
Russell, you have a point about those policies he stressed. But did you look beyond his rhetoric around two hot-points to his full suite of policies? I'd be interested to know what you thought of them.
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