New Poll of Polls

Little change in seat numbers. So what will it take to shake up the polls before the election?

Pundit's Poll of Polls, brought to you by the good folks PollWatch, adds two new polls this week, from the New Zealand Herald and TV3. There's little change from last week, with just the Greens losing a seat under the new numbers.

Labour is still 19 seats behind National and must be worried at how stable the polls have been for the past month or two. They will be hoping tomorrow's tax cuts bring some love back their way.

As PollWatch points out, those tax cuts are one of four potential game-changers in the coming campaign, the others being debate performances, John Key slip-ups, and indications from the Greens or the Maori Party about who they could form a coalition with. I would add a November surprise to that list. Labour's student loans policy at the last election had a huge impact and you'd imagine the government may well have something up its sleeve again this time. And you can't rule out a Brethrens-style bolt from the blue as well.