With houses prices hitting new highs in our main cities, is the sense of economic gloom finally lifting from New Zealand? And what implications might that have for MPs?

It's been coming for a while, but QV has now confirmed that our love affair with bricks and mortar is back at record levels. In Auckland and Christchurch we've raised the roof on house prices above the previous peak in 2007, with average house values of $529,508 and $388,629 in the respective cities.

Can we now say that New Zealand has turned an economic and psychological corner? Perhaps I'm over-egging a few numbers, but hear me out.

The great recession that swept the world after the credit crunch began early in New Zealand, in part because of drought and the bursting of our own housing bubble off those 2007 highs. Although it was less a bubble burst and more an evaporation, as it turned out. Housing prices slid and stalled, but never really crashed.

New Zealanders stayed put, buckled down, started saving. Bill English was delighted and started talking about implementing policies that pushed New Zealanders in the direction they were already going.

We came out of recession in 2009, but only just and only in fiscal terms. Growth has been 0.1 percent here, a bit more there. In our minds, the recession has dragged on as we've watched the rest of the western world mired in debt and austerity.

Confidence, however, seems to be stirring in business and now in the housing market. While the national picture is actually showing a slight easing in price rises, after a year of month-on-month price rises, it's significant that the number of sales is the highest since 2009 and we've got new peaks in our two largest cities.

QV's research director Jonno Ingerson says:

"Activity levels have been bolstered by first-home buyers having enough confidence to enter the market, while some existing homeowners are now ready to make a move they may have been delaying for several years."

So the mood isn't what it was. People are showing signs of spending again and taking debt again. Banks are back to their old tricks offering more 90% mortgages.

So have we learnt our lesson? Only time will tell.

But this is a sign of a turning point that suggests the end of the mental recession; that could change the game politically.

In the US, petrol prices and presidential approval ratings are highly correlated. I wonder if there's a similar match here between house prices and government popularity? We are so hung up on housing.

Either way, a more bullish mood will have political implications.

On the plus side for National, strengthening economies are broadly a plus for incumbent governments for obvious reasons - voters like jobs and money. On the downside, English will be concerned if our commitment to saving is showing signs of slipping.

Greater confidence would also have to prompt a re-think of National's political tactics. It's been very effective arguing that the stifled economy - which is the world's fault, not the government's you understand - means there's no room for spending. It's an argument most recently used this week regarding extending paid parental leave.

But is the public appetite for that line ebbing? If so, economic confidence could come at a cost to the government, as voters start to look more sceptically at more promises of austerity and zero budgets. English has positioned himself essentially as a cutter, a 'do more with less' kinda guy for the tough times. Can he adapt?

Sure, a willingness to spend your own money is not necessarily a sign you want your government to spend more. But the fundamental mindset here is crucial.

The Greens and Labour have opportunities to exploit such a changing mood by pushing for smart spending, more middle class support; Sue Moroney nibbled at that with her claim this week that it was the right time to extend paid parental leave because under her bill the full cost wouldn't kick-in until the government intends to be back in surplus in 2014/15.

It'll be interesting to see where the public mood goes on this - do we still want a government with the brakes on or is our willingness to start spending big on property again a sign that spending of all sorts is coming back into vogue?

Comments (6)

by jack on April 16, 2012
jack

No, the recession is still alive and well.. I have a business and we are ticking over but people in Napier are still holding on to their money.  Aukland might be a different story.

by NiuZila on April 17, 2012
NiuZila

@jack - well parts of Auckland have a different story.

This blog posts asserts its only inner Auckland suburbs that have seen house values rise.  The NZherald misses the rest of Auckland.

http://transportblog.co.nz/2012/04/16/boom-or-flight-to-the-centre/

by Ross on April 18, 2012
Ross

I think you're getting way ahead of yourself, Tim.

If you at stats from www.realestate .co.nz, you'll see that Canterbury, Wellington and Auckland have the lowest number of weeks to clear existing inventory (houses on the market). For March, the numbers were 21 weeks, 21 weeks and 22 weeks respectively. That's how long it would take for those properties currently on the market to sell. But have a look outside those areas. For example, in the Wairarapa it's 116 weeks, in  Northland it's 143 weeks, the central north island it's 72 weeks and Central Otago it's 80 weeks.

 

by stuart munro on April 20, 2012
stuart munro

The global economy is expected to grow modestly this year, the first positive prognosis really since 2008. But NZ will experience little or no improvement until it resolves its structural problems. Treasury's cyclopean  focus on inflation being the clearest indication that government doesn't know what it's doing or care about NZ's welfare.

by animalspirit on April 24, 2012
animalspirit

A "mental obsession" rather than a "mental recession" I think!

by danniel on August 27, 2013
danniel

I can only hope that we've learned something out of this terrible financial crisis experience. The history should not repeat again. I read some reports about the revival of the real estate market on this Cal Am resource, indeed they were more optimistic than I was used to see so far.

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