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Infrastructure won’t win it for National (but this other thing might)

Looking to take a leaf out of Boris Johnson's book, Simon Bridges wants National to become the "party of infrastructure" next year. But while it is encouraging to see National move towards a more populist economic stance, one cannot help but feel that the specific focus may be not quite be in the right place.

For example, the Labour government has just announced an enormous infrastructure spending plan. It is hard to see National getting a lot of cut-through with its arguments that its plans are superior. We are talking about projects that will take years to complete and which therefore are quite abstract.

Put it this way, if extensive roading promises failed to swing the true blue Northland electorate in 2015, why would they swing things for National across the country in 2020?

A far more immediately gratifying approach, which would be consistent with National's major critique of the government to date, would be to zero in on helping families. Ownership of that issue is likely to resonate greatly for those being hammered by cost of living increases. Furthermore, those in work but not quite getting by are some of the voters most susceptible to conversion (it overseas experience is anything to go by).

Last week, I laid out part of the case for a universal tax credit for children. By coincidence, a similar proposal was very recently forward in the US Congress by Mitt Romney and others, it seems. Poland's conservative government has also had great success with a program of this nature.

There are other approaches.

Income splitting for families, which allows parents to allocate half their income to each other for tax purposes, would allow salaried or wage earning mums and dads to enjoy the same tax advateges as business people. It was considered a decade ago and abandoned largely because those who would beneht Most would be the middle classes.

There exists a persistent myth that Don Brash nearly won the 2005 election on the basis of the Orewa speech from early 2004. While that did give him an initial boost, the effect was well and truly over by the election, with Labour regaining the lead by July 2004.

National did almost win the following year's election, but this was largely on the basis of a very specific tax reform platform. Labour saved a belt largely due to Working for Families and interest free student loans.  

The vote that year was not known as the "Orewa" election that year but the "calculator"election (with both parties debuting online what-will-I-get? tools).

It was a populist campaign on both sides and voters responded to the promise of real and immediate gains rather than theoretical ones that would take years to bear fruit.

In any event, the era of Thatcher is over now. Far the time being anyway. But just as nothing lasts forever, nothing stays dead forever. either. And there is the promise a new Disraelian age before National now.

If it can adapt for it, that is.