Last month I noted that the public policy debate was all about how we deal with covid-19. That’s changing now, and will change more over the next couple of months as the buffering impact of the wage subsidy disappears and we see starkly the economic hole out of which we are now going to have to climb. It is a deep hole for sure but not impossible.

Some forecasts are easily made. Businesses that rely on international visitors are going to go to the wall in large numbers. That cannot be helped. We have got New Zealand close to if not completely free of Covid-19. The border controls that stop any visitor bringing in a new virus attack have to block tourists full stop or we will be reinfected. The economic and employment implications of that drop in numbers is huge. Almost all industries will be affected to some extent, and will continue to be affected until a medicine, probably a vaccine, gives herd immunity to our population.

Queenstown is now facing a wipe out. Airlines are going to be years coming back, as will the rental motor home business. Entertainment (concerts and shows) too will be stripped of any international component. Pre- Covid-19 we were abundantly supplied with cafes and restaurants. The numbers will drop. Testing working-from-home during the lockdown period demonstrated it to be a realistic option in way more industry sectors than had considered the option before; many will limit their office time to the times when they have to be there. That will quieten the city centres and lessen the demand for office leases. That is not all bad but it costs valued citizens their jobs and their incomes.

While we often hear the phrase ‘we are all in this together’, sadly we are not. Some are losing a lot. The ambitious young one who put their life’s savings into a business that through no fault of their own has dried up are hopelessly negatively affected, whereas those on steady incomes – for example, those working in government departments – have seen no dimunition in the incomes. The consequent poverty for some will have too be addressed.

Navigating our way out of the hole provides a great opportunity for strategic shifts in the way we do things in this ‘new-normal’ post-lockdown period. The globalisation ethos of the last couple of generations has seen much manufacturing shift overseas. It would be great to see some genuine innovation, including seeing some manufacturing happening here again.

Growing up on a South Wairarapa farm I remember well the Upper Hutt based TVL (Tasman Vaccine Laboratory) products. We used to help our dad vaccinate our flock with a locally produced vaccine. TVL had been founded in 1945 by scientist Lewis Fitch, OBE, D.Sc.Hon., B.Sc., FACVSc., to do pregnancy testing for horses. In 1951 it was licensed to produce blackleg vaccine for sheep. In 1954 it made its first exports to Australia. From a small family business, TVL was to become New Zealand’s leading animal health company. But as happened to so many New Zealand enterprises, it was sold and became part of an international conglomerate through a series of mergers beginning in 1976. It is now a small part of one of the world’s largest animal health companies. Covig-19 has seen the quest to identify a vaccine that will end the impact of the coronavirus brought to worldwide front of mind. While we may be a small in terms of our human population, we have a lot of animals here and with the right attitude could take on some big challenges.

I just hope looking for imaginative solutions becomes part of the economic recovery plan.