The first thing Chris Luxon did publicly after being elected as the 15th leader of the National Party was thank his colleagues. It was the proper thing to do. For it is only thanks to the cloak and dagger politics that they’ve engaged in over the past three years that someone with barely a year in parliament has been able to take the helm.

The former Air New Zealand CEO turned MP for Botany is leader of the party much sooner than anyone might have expected, because National, since losing power in 2017, has been unable to unite behind a leader or avoid scandal. National has been stained as a party of dirty politics for most of this century, though John Key’s political prowess and popularity were a tourniquet that stopped the party bleeding support for a time. Since his departure, however, the party has been dominated by in-fighting and scandal.

No more, Luxon declared today in his first, assured, energetic press conference as leader. New Zealand deserves better. He would deliver “a national National Party”. When it came to branding his National Party as different he turned back the clock to John Key and talked about “ambition”. He promised not the current government’s “mediocrity” but “a more ambitious future”. He spoke to the importance of education, infrastructure and even provided a simple definition of productivity that most could understand. He used numbers confidently. Perhaps most importantly of all he came across as positive and enthusiastic.  

On the party’s internal division, he said they are “drawing a line under the past four years” and “turning the page”. And in case you – or his colleagues – didn’t quite it get it the first few times, he added that “New Zealand is over it” and National is “putting the baggage aside”. Without quite admitting the bitter division that exists in the 33 person caucus he has inherited, his use of words such as “skirmishes” and “shenanigans” showed he’s not blind to the mess he’s now tasked with cleaning up.

Luxon argued he’s the man for the job. In part because he’s a leader and in part because he’s new to politics and brings a fresh set of eyes.

“What I see is that this place and this country need a real shake-up. [Deputy leader[ Nicola [Willis] and I are fresh faces for a revitalised National Party. We are the reset.”

Those were great lines from an impressive debut appearance. These first impressions matter, as we know from Jacinda Ardern’s powerful, forthright first press conference as Labour leader and John Key’s first crucial speech highlighting what he called New Zealand’s “underclass”.

This is the first time most New Zealanders would have seen Luxon and what they saw was an energised and positive character who spoke about “real world experience” and blokey trips to Bunnings for power tools. Any Opposition needs to find points of difference from a government. One of the current Labour government’s trademarks is that it is pull of people from the political class, who have spent their entire adult life around Wellington and politics more broadly. Simon Bridges and Judith Collins both had been ministers and long-time MPs before they became leader and so could hardly draw that distinction. Luxon can.

But the two strengths that Luxon spoke to most strongly are far from slam dunks for him.

First, newness. The problem with that asset is that it’s started eroding already; the mere passage of times steals it from you until you are as predictable and mockable as the leader before you. He has two years before he can go head-to-head with Ardern in an election, which is plenty of time for people to wary of him. He doesn’t get to trade on newness in an election campaign, as Ardern did.

Equally, it would hardly be surprising if he turns out to be just too new. Taking the leadership now is bold but also high risk. John Key was regarded as pretty green when he took over National after four years in parliament. Luxon is so green he’s Kermit hiding in the grass. Timing is everything in politics and perhaps Luxon can leverage the lack of baggage he brings to this introduction to the New Zealand public. Or perhaps he falls flat on his face.

Second, leadership. As a former CEO he can position himself as a leader, his argument being that the job in leading a company is to set the culture, solve problems, get results. Same in politics.

Except I suspect Luxon is going learn just how different political and business leadership really is. Business leadership is more focused – shareholders, profit, brand. The measures of success aren’t easy to reach, but they are pretty clear cut. Politics by comparison is a constantly moving target. Voters’ moods move in a way the markets don’t. They are more fickle than P&Ls and don’t offer the respect your staff usually do. As Baruch Fischhoff, a professor at Carnegie Mellon’s Institute for Politics and Strategy, has said political analyses are “much harder calculations than the ones entrepreneurs need to make.” 

“In politics, compared to business, there are potentially many more people and issues that can affect how decisions are made and things turn out. Policies (and people) can be sabotaged or promoted for reasons far removed from seemingly immediate concerns.”

Speaking about sabotage, he’s surrounded by a group of people who have made a fine art of it in recent years. It has become, whether MPs will admit it or not, part of National’s culture. And several of those MPs still have less than they want. Luxon as leader is now a target.

It’s two years until an election; plenty of time for someone in National’s caucus with hopes of being Prime Minister one day to wait. To plot. To see if National might need a fifth leader since 2020.

For all the talk of “getting things done”, Luxon’s biggest initial challenge may well be a fight with time and the forces within his caucus that have done for every leader since 2017. Governments usually lose elections, rather than Oppositions winning them. But Oppositions can lose them to even under-performing governments by fighting amongst themselves. So one of the biggest questions facing Luxon on this, his first day, is whether he can simply survive long enough for his party to unite and for voters to tire of this government. Or have circumstances conspired so that he’s made his run too soon?

National’s two years of self-harm mean that’s a tough task. Luxon may have to find the inner strength to do what Helen Clark did between 1993 and 1999 – endure not only a tough initial period trying to heal a divided party, but also an election loss and another term of frustration. The first of those things – surviving until 2023 will be hard enough. The odds of him achieving the second are even steeper.

But those are political calculations for harder days to come. Today, elected unopposed and with a strong first public performance under his belt, Luxon has a lot to be thankful for.