In the musical Wicked, a re-imagining of The Wizard of Oz, the hit song Defying Gravity comes at the end of the first act and talks of how one woman (who would become the Wicked Witch of the West) breaks from what’s expected to strike off on her own path. Now I’m making no witch-like comparisons (or judgments about witches, who have been some of my favourite people), but as Jacinda Ardern comes to the end of her first act in government one of the biggest questions facing her is whether she can defy political gravity and lead the first majority government under MMP.

Recent polls have Labour at 56 or even 60 percent; Pundit’s poll of polls has the party at 55 percent. Campaigns have a tradition of taking the edge off leading parties and spreading the vote more widely as non-government parties get more media attention. In the MMP era United (Future), New Zealand First, ACT and the Greens have all enjoyed bumps. But minor parties are struggling to get in (or on) the air during the early days of the campaign, apart from the hardly edifying sight of them sniping at each other. As the election nears, the question is less ‘how can Labour hang onto a majority?’ and more ‘what can the other parties do to shake loose some of the Prime Minister’s support?’.

I purposefully say the Prime Minister’s support as opposed to Labour’s, because those high poll numbers are undoubtedly a vote of support for an individual rather than a collective. It wasn’t by chance that the only people who got to speak at Labour’s campaign launch were the Prime Minister and the man who shares her address. Jacinda Ardern’s partner Clarke Gayford in his introduction shrewdly likened the election to a job application. He was clearly telling voters to pick Ardern for Prime Minister rather than Labour for government.

Yet one would lead to the other on current polling. And let’s be clear quite what an achievement that would be. Even in 2002 with Helen Clark at her peak and Bill English leading National to its worst-ever election result, Labour only got 41.3 percent. And John Key in his pomp in 2011 – with Labour starting to tear itself apart and with the GFC, Christchurch earthquakes and Pike River to underline National’s message of stability – topped out at 47.3 percent.

Ardern, for now, is defying gravity. The song in Wicked is all about someone breaking the rules. Not playing someone else’s game. Trusting her instincts. On one level the comparison works. Ardern’s genuine commitment to her kindness mantra looks genius and natural after a terrorist attack and pandemic, but in another time could have played out as weak or mealy-mouthed.

On the other hand, Ardern is one of the most risk-averse Prime Minister’s we’ve ever had. She’s hardly jumping on a broomstick singing that if she never takes the risk, she’ll never know. The campaign launch announcement was a re-heat of a Key era policy; intentional or not, it meant the focus stayed on her. She spent a day on the election trail today without any policy announcement.

In both her speech to Congress and at the weekend’s launch, Ardern has spoken of ‘economic scarring’ – “the long-lasting damage to individuals of an economic downturn”. She has called it ‘the greatest of wastes’, which you might think would suggest some bold investment, some transformative commitment to economic or welfare reform. Instead, the fear of over-reaching seems to freeze her. In her Congress speech she noted, “I am a child of the 80s and 90s. I have seen responses to troubled times that have failed to take this into account and have left people behind”.

Ardern seems distinctly uncomfortable defying gravity; where it would embolden some, for her it seems to be more of a reminder of just how easy it is to fall. For her and for the country.

So what might bring Labour and its leader down to earth in the next six weeks? The pull of some dramatic National promise or some Orewa-like speech? Perhaps the push of some internal Labour scandal? The lure of New Zealand First’s ‘handbrake’ argument to those on the centre-right? Or the confidence of those on the left that Labour will win and need a green spine?

Perhaps the re-emergence of Covid in the community could rattle voters and remind them of Labour’s wobbly moments.

Those are all possible – at least one is even likely – over the coming weeks. But there’s an intriguing, counter-intuitive argument why that may not play out.

In the past business leaders have turned on Labour at times and bolstered a weak Opposition (think the ‘winter of discontent’). But I had an interesting conversation over the weekend with a person who has decades of experience at the ‘big end of town’, who made the point that those normally most concerned about a tilt left are looking more fondly at Labour than they have in the past.

Why? Well, with New Zealand First in trouble – and Shane Jones running third in Northland – the strategic handbrake vote for the centre-right is looking like less of an option. Winston Peters and Co’s choice of Labour at the last election remains a bugbear for many who have supported them in the past and the whiff of scandal around the party and its foundation is making some wary.

The biggest fear for these voters, though, is a Labour-Greens government with licence to veer hard left. The last thing they want is Labour dependent on the Greens to pass legislation. So what are they to do? The best option could be to look at the conservative instincts of Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson, hold their nose and vote Labour in the hope that it can govern alone.

So it could yet be that Ardern’s cautious instincts, the very traits that seem to make her nervous of flying too high, could be the very thing that keeps her defying gravity.