All thoughtful men agree that the present aspect of society is portentous of great changes. The only question is, whether they will be for the better or the worse.  Edward Bellamy, Postscript, Looking Backward 2000-1887,1887.

Winston Churchill led Britain to victory over the Nazis, but he lost the election in 1945 to Clement Attlee.

Herein lies a lesson.

Attlee won because, among other reasons, when the war was over the troops and their families wanted something better to make up for their sacrifice. Churchill represented a return to normal, Attlee offered the promise of a better world.

There is a lesson in this as well.

Let’s apply these lessons to New Zealand, Covid-19 and the looming election.

There is no doubt that New Zealand – led by the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Minister of Finance Grant Robinson, with the support of public servants like the Director-General of Health, Dr. Ashley Bloomfield -  is winning the ‘war’ against the invisible enemy (the Covid-19 crisis has been imbued with war metaphors). Unlike most countries, New Zealand is experiencing a relatively low level of infection and death.

But, the relative lack of harm to the health of the nation has already become a challenge for the Government. Commentators wanting to voice their opposition to how the crisis has been handled, have been struggling to find a way to do some damage. Their raiding parties have come home empty handed. Attacking a Prime Minister rated as the “most effective leader on the planet” in the fight against Covid-19 has been a difficult mission (although that has not stopped the usual stream of bile on social media platforms).   

Unable to land any serious blows, those opposed to the Government are now turning to the time worn political tactic of attacking where the target is most strong to sow seeds of doubt.  Their argument is that success is not really success. Or as the leader of the National Party clumsily puts it “the medicine is worse than the cure” (he means the cure is worse than the disease).

The small number of people who have contracted the virus and the small number who have died, means that the Government, say the critics, driven by public health experts ‘who care nothing for the economy’, overreacted. They closed the borders, ‘forced’ the country into lockdown and continue to ask New Zealanders to sacrifice. This approach, the critics argue, has unnecessarily wrecked the economy. Success is being made out to be failure.

With the election still slated for September, the National Party and Act (no doubt with the support of the newly resuscitated Maori Party), will be arguing that they need to take over and guide us through the turmoil of the years ahead.

Already we are seeing ghosts from the past like John Key, Bill English, Steven Joyce and Peter Dunne (who tells us feels like he is living in George Orwell’s 1984 – really!?) and a platoon of conservative commentators laying the ground-work for National’s election campaign. Having had to concede the war to the Government (if all goes to plan), the Opposition is intent on winning the ‘peace’.

What lesson can Labour take from Churchill and Attlee? It is that once victory is in sight, it is vital to shift gear and start talking positively about the future.

Most New Zealanders agree with, and will continue to agree with, the elimination strategy adopted by the Government. They stayed home and saved lives. For the most part, they were also kind. This is something to be immensely proud of.

But pride in what has been achieved will in no way prevent these same people from thinking completely differently about the way the country handles the next few years. It will not take long before the aspirations of most New Zealanders to live better lives will emerge.

Those with resources will have worked and will continue to work their way through Covid-19 and the aftermath without feeling a great deal of pain. They will want to get on with the kind of life their resources allow as quickly as possible.

Those without resources have been and will feel a great deal of pain. They will justifiably be demanding that ‘something’ is done to help them get through what is going to be a prolonged period of adjustment.

Young people eager to get on with their lives (and feeling they sacrificed for older generations) will want to know how they make up for lost time.

There are also the many thousands of people who have been and will be occupying the ‘front-lines’ in the health battle and the now emerging economic battle. These troops will justifiably want to feel that the sacrifice has been for something.

It is to these and similar audiences that both the Government and the Opposition will speak to come the election.  

If the National plays to type, it will argue that it is best equipped to manage the economy. If that argument proves to be persuasive, expect the aim to be a return to a version of the old normal.  Change has never been National’s strength. The rationale for its existence is to be in power and administer the country.

Witness its behaviour during the GFC when there was much talk of the need for a new normal. No-one can argue with the fact the Sirs John Key and Bill English managed the ‘books’ well. But they changed nothing. New Zealand emerged from the GFC much as it went in.

And here in lies the lesson. The country acknowledged the sound management of Key and English but thought that austerity and the failure to do anything about social, environmental and other policy priorities was no longer acceptable. They wanted something better.

If Labour is learning from history, it will be making sure that, as the Party of change, it continues the fight against Covid-19 while shifting its attention to not only reopening the economy but also to rebuilding New Zealand.

In the aftermath of Covid-19 and in the context of a possible world recession, New Zealanders will need to innovate, innovate and innovate again. A lot of money is going to be spent to triage and stabilise the economy. But this alone is not going to ensure a return to the pre-Covid-19 days never mind the emergence of something better. The times demand that we rethink everything we do from wealth creation to education to the environment to welfare to taxation. We should take the opportunity the Covid-19 crisis offers to address a range of long-standing challenges that have been made more urgent by the virus.

If we are wise, we will not waste this crisis.

Herein are the lessons. For National it is that winning the peace is still possible.   

For Labour it is that victory is not enough. Offering a compelling, workable plan for a better future is what people who have survived the ‘war’ want to hear.  They want a “Land fit for heroes”.

As Edward Bellamy said a very long time ago (crises are not new), the times we live in are “portentous of great change”. “The only questions is, whether they will be for the better or the worse”. We will soon find out.