Well, here we are. Again. The NZ First party is causing difficulty and embarrassment for prime minister Jacinda Ardern.

As if suffering the indignity of an effective co-prime minister and a cabinet colleague who regularly makes a mockery of her authority wasn’t bad enough, her government looks set to be sidetracked by a donations scandal. Her deputy is texting radio hosts on-air to cry “fake news” and the prime minister, as notional leader of the government, is going to be constantly on the defensive about it.

Of course, this was all very predictable. In fact, I predicted it back in 2017, when I called on Bill English to walk away from coalition negotiations with NZ First. Here was my reasoning:

But today’s irascible performance is a reminder about governing with New Zealand First. Under the scrutiny that comes with power, the party’s dysfunction and internal contradictions will come to the fore. And, as it starts to flail about, Mr. Peters will flail about — as he did today.

When the embarrassments come, the parties associated with him will be damned by association. The political reality is that they will be forced to spin, defend and minimise on their partner’s behalf. This will become a weeping sore and eventually a gaping wound in the side of the lead government party.

Remember when Parliament censured Peters in 2008 over the Owen Glenn donation? National, the Maori Party, ACT, the Greens, United Future and the then two independents supported the motion. New Zealand First was opposed.

And so was Labour. I guess that’s just what you have to do when you’re in power with Winston Peters.

So it has come to pass. Almost inevitably so. Perhaps it will come as some consolation to Ardern that she is not the first prime minister to wind up in this position.

And, unlike her predecessors, Ardern is not bereft of options. Indeed, this trouble with NZ First presents her with an opportunity to strengthen her hand. All that it is required is nerves enough to call an early election.

It would mean kissing the alliance with NZ First goodbye, of course. However, the general picture presented by the polls is that if an election was called, a Labour-Green government would be the outcome. Her current coalition partner would be out of Parliament once more.

Of course, nothing is certain in this world. It is possible that voters might punish Ardern for making them go the polls early. However, that risk has to be weighed against the risk of staying the course.

As Danyl McLaughlan has pointed out, it was this type of scandal that sealed Helen Clark’s fate in 2008. If Ardern continues to duck and weave on the issue over the course of the coming year, then that defensiveness will become her hallmark in the minds of voters. Given how much her government’s popularity is tied up with her personal brand, that is not a good thing.

So would Ardern roll the dice? It can’t be ruled out. She has shown steeliness before.

When Metiria Turei revealed her transgressions in 2017, it drove a big wedge between Labour’s online support base and the voting public. Andrew Little seemed like he didn’t know what to do. But when Ardern took over, she showed no hesitation. The social media crowd immediately fell into line and we didn’t hear many #IamMetiria’s thenceforth.

One thing that is certain is that if she is unable to decouple herself from NZ First, she probably needs to back her coalition partner to the hilt. Perhaps even to the extent where she validates his critique of the media. That too would be risky.

But not as risky as continuing to take half-measures.