John Key was anywhere but New North Rd on Saturday. For National's leader, Melissa Lee's post-by-election wake in the heart of Mt Albert held all the attraction of a swine flu support group

So John Key had a long-standing holiday commitment that prevented him from attending Melissa Lee’s defeat party. When he personally selected the by-election date back in April (when he harboured sweaty dreams of glorious victory, giving those miserable feckless Labourites another bloody nose), he did so knowing there was no way he could ever be there to enjoy it. Of course he did.

Key’s non-appearance was the coup de grace to the worst few weeks in his government’s short life to date. National and its supporters are now telling us they never conceived of victory in such a Labour stronghold, and that National was miles behind from day one. Key cites an early internal poll showing National about 15 to 20 points behind.

Which doesn’t quite tally with earlier National Party spin. In the green room during David Shearer’s first set-piece television debate of the campaign – an appearance with Lee on TVNZ’s Q&A – Lee’s minders said that their polling showed it to be a close-run thing. It could have been bravado, but who knows?. In the interests of transparency, National could, of course, release their early poll results.

Those National strategists who now claim they always knew Labour would win and win handsomely were strangely reticent about such predictions, not just in TVNZ’s green room, but back in March and April, when speculation about the by-election was mounting. Back then, there was much comment about the possible Tizard effect if List MP Phil Twyford had won Labour’s candidacy. The Nats, in fact, were rather relishing the prospect. Even after Shearer’s selection, some in National were speculating on a close-run thing.

This was mirrored by concern within Labour’s ranks about how they would fare against an outrageously popular government. Helen Clark’s personal following in Mt Albert was large, but Labour’s party vote lead was much, much narrower. Moreover, by-election pummellings in the 1990s had left Labour rather scarred. There seemed little prospect of an upside in Mt Albert where Labour would always be the home favourite and, therefore, vulnerable to blows from left and right.

Phil Goff took a significant role and has emerged with considerable credit. Even the Herald is saying so. He instructed Twyford not to stand. Shearer was summonsed home from Baghdad with Goff’s blessing. Goff attended the candidate selection meetings, fronted with Shearer immediately following the selection, and joined him from day one on the campaign trail. He personally knocked on doors. Homeowners who might have declined requests from anonymous party members to hang hoardings on their fences found it more difficult to say no to the Opposition leader standing in their doorway, hammer in hand. His presence during the campaign was ubiquitous.

It was a gamble. If National’s early dreams had carried through into the campaign, it could have got very ugly for Goff. Campaigns develop a zeitgeist, and some negative early portents can destabilise. As was indeed the case, but for National after Melissa Lee’s travails. In the end, the result was ridiculously one-sided. Kim Jong Il would have been fairly content with something similar. Hindsight tells us that was inevitable. But foresight was far less certain.

Lee is emerging from a very tough month. To her credit, she fronted up and admitted to her failings. (Her colleagues have bravely fronted up and admitted to her failings too.) She was a limited and deeply inexperienced campaigner. That fact became apparent to the media and public within a week. Some people have it in their DNA to be born campaigners. Others don’t. That’s what party selection processes are meant to reveal. More than that, National’s spin was that Lee was a rising star – Key telling us early on that she was a ‘very fine’ MP. To have so ill-judged her suitability speaks volumes of their judgment.

Where to now?

Labour has secured an excellent new MP in Shearer. By-elections place candidates under a level of scrutiny approaching that placed on party leaders in general elections. Those that prosper become well-tempered by the intensity. Shearer is a thoroughly decent chap who plays the issues and not the person. And he possesses a background (saving lives, playing rugby and cricket, drinking whisky) which appeals to mid-aged New Zealand males – that very group which turned away from Labour last year.

National’s political antennae looks to be rather seriously bent. If it was simply Mt Albert, it would be considered a one-off. But we’ve just had the Rankin episode – Key needed to issue muzzling instructions on day zero, not day 14 – and the Worth affair, which will drag on at least until Key reveals exactly what it was that caused him to lose confidence in his minister.

Becoming a wildly popular Prime Minister is a natural consequence of the inevitable honeymoon. Even Geoffrey Palmer had one of those. Remaining so is the consequence of a number of factors, not least the possession of superb political skills. Whether Key and his senior team have those skills is yet to be seen. But the early portents aren’t great.