A guest post by Hamish Price.

“A leader is a dealer in hope.”

— Napoléon Bonaparte

Catholics have a name for potential successors to a dead pope.  Papabile. The small coterie of distinguished cardinals who have what it takes to step up.  Todd Muller has always been one.

I first met Muller at a National Party conference in 1993. He had just completed a stint as President of the Waikato Students Union, and had joined Jim Bolger’s office as an adviser.

Muller was an imposing figure. He stood head and shoulders above most, but would lean in and hold your gaze and speak softly, and listen and engage respectfully even with lowly young trouble-makers.  He had an avuncular authority that defied his 25 years. I would not describe it so crudely as charisma, but his ability to make every person he met feel important, made him a person of unmistakable presence.

Muller was always at Bolger’s side, and invariably mistaken for the PM’s bodyguard. And in a political sense, he was: until he was deposed in 1997, Muller always had Jim’s back.

From the outset, Muller was a Prime Minister-in-Waiting.

That is a curse that a small band of talented individuals never lived up to. Brian Talboys, Philip Burdon, Simon Power, and most recently Simon Bridges, all endured the mantle with varying degrees of self-acceptance. Talboys bottled the 1980 Colonels’ Coup. Burdon relished in the title, but never lived up to the potential. Power had the status, but never the opportunity, as the John Key juggernaut swept him by. And Bridges fell victim to a global pandemic and a vastly popular Labour Prime Minister.

For a time Muller was a confirmed member of the Could-Have-Beens. He had declined an invitation to contest the newly-vacated National seat of Tauranga in 2008, choosing instead to hold on to keep his job as chief executive of a large Kiwifruit packing company. In 2011, when the Coromandel seat came up, he was already ensconced in the senior leadership at Fonterra.

Muller intimately knew the demands of Wellington political life. With three pre-school-aged children, the choice between becoming an MP and sacrificing family life was a simple and straightforward one.  But for many of us who had seen Muller as a future leader, the opportunity for him to rise to Cabinet in a third-term National Govt had passed. So too would his prospects of rising to the top of the National Party, as a younger generation leap-frogged him.

So when Muller did eventually become an MP in 2014, there was already a cohort of young, talented Ministers with significant Cabinet experience ahead of him. Amy Adams, Simon Bridges, Nikki Kaye and Todd McClay all held heavyweight portfolios.

Muller was a safe pair of hands in his first term as a government back-bencher. He was immediately made deputy chair of the Education and Science Select Committee. When John Key resigned and Bill English promoted a contingent of new Ministers, Muller was given the prestigious Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee.  This was a signal of English’s confidence in him, and of almost certain elevation to Cabinet had National won the government benches for a barely-precedented fourth term.

And then events intervened.  Winston Peters chose Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party to lead the Government.  The Nats were consigned to Opposition.  Bridges was elected Leader.  Muller’s time hadn’t just passed; it had never even begun.

Bridges’ first shadow cabinet in early 2018 held little hope for Muller. Although granted the Climate Change spokesmanship, he was relegated to 34th in Bridges’ line-up. It was a slight that rankled some of those who recognised Muller’s talents, although it is not in Muller’s nature to dwell on such matters.  

Instead he focussed on his portfolio with serious determination.  He resisted the inclination of some in the Party to deny the Government a bipartisan consensus on future climate change commitments. He took personal risks, going up and down the country, speaking to National Party audiences, and respectfully holding the line. The final outcome, an agreement with Greens Leader James Shaw, which dramatically watered down the Government’s original aspirations, was a milestone political achievement.

When Nathan Guy announced his retirement in 2019, Muller was the only contender for Agriculture, a vital National Party role.  Finally, after five years in Parliament, he was elevated to a shadow cabinet position, in a portfolio domain he had lived and breathed his entire lifetime.

It is no exaggeration to say that Bridges’ leadership was troubled. In fact, no National Opposition leader faced the challenges that Bridges did, either of his own or others’ making.  But the names of potential successors--Judith Collins, Mark Mitchell, and latterly Christopher Luxon--have all eclipsed Muller’s in the public eye.

Over the years many those who have known Muller and recognised his leadership material came to write him off.  He had bottled his chance to succeed early, they said. He didn’t have the hunger, they said.  He had missed his opportunity, they said. When given the chance again, he wouldn’t have the mongrel, they said.

I was one of them, and I was wrong.  As events have shown this week, Muller has all those things.  The opportunity, a global pandemic that has thrown the New Zealand economy into a spiralling may-day call, has consumed the National Party leadership.  And it is the unique set of circumstances that has gifted it to Muller.

Muller has a unique set of attributes.  He exudes reassurance at a time when the country is in crisis. He has an optimism and confidence in New Zealand at a time when the public needs hope for the future. Conservative by nature, but not thumpingly so, he has an eye for pragmatism and results.

Todd Muller is no Jacinda Ardern.  He does not have her communication polish.  But before she was elected leader of the Labour Party, Jacinda Ardern was no Jacinda Ardern.

This election is now game-on.  And anyone who writes Muller off now risks making the same mistake that too many of us have over the last five years.

Hamish Price is a former political staffer and advisor who has worked with National Party governments and candidates. He is not going to be Todd Muller’s chief of staff.