To pull our society from the brink, we will need unprecedented economic change. 

Under the strains of pandemic, our people are hurting. Pay reductions, lost customers, for too many the inability to work and earn a living. We don’t know when the lockdown will end, or the true extent of the damage, but what we can do is start planning the recovery. 

 Just as the welfare state was retooled and expanded in the aftermath of war, we will need move quickly; including sweeping new policies to stop the free-fall. 

Some of these can be reversed or undone as the economy adjusts. Others may become the new normal, and remain for generations. Either way, the recovery will not be a time for incrementalism or half measures. Instead we will need radical, transformational policies just to survive. 

1: Forget About Debt.

 If it wasn’t clear already, New Zealand’s government debt should not guide our post-crisis politics. As a share of our economy, we owe lest than almost anywhere in the world. With interest rates at record lows, it’s cheap to borrow- and it’s only getting cheaper.

The recoveries from the Great Depression and 2008 recession were stymied by unnecessary austerity which slashed public investment when it was most needed. Those countries that spent the most had the easiest recovery, and the least pain. 

Labour’s instinct to “upgrade New Zealand” before the crisis showed the right instinct. Even more encouraging have been governments across the world prioritising fighting the crisis over preserving the finances. Even conservative governments in the UK, Australia, and the United States have been willing to borrow heavily to keep the economy running. 

Long may it last.

2: We need jobs. For Everyone.

 As presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden likes to say, “a job is about a lot more than a paycheque. It's about your dignity. It's about respect. It's about your place in your community.”

The projected mass unemployment from the crisis threatens more than just our incomes. It threatens our dignity, our self-worth, our communities, the everything that makes up our society. The ability for many to provide for their families. 

 We cannot let this slip away. We know that it is middle and lower-class jobs most hit worst by the shutdown - low wage retail jobs, but also skilled work in construction and other industries. We know too, of the devastating impact of unemployment across every social indicator - health, crime and mortality can all be directly linked to whether you have a job. The impact of job losses from global economic reforms in the 1980s has never truly gone away. Many communities never recovered, and many people never went back to work. 

 In the aftermath of the Great Depression, the way out for many governments were nationwide employment programmes. In New Zealand, the First Labour Government created a national employment service to guarantee everyone work.  If you wanted a job, you got one. In the short term at least, this is what we need to do. 

As the lockdown lifts, those who need to work, must be able to. By nature, it won’t be the most productive or essential work, but a job is a job. Now is not the time to complain about central planning - assign workers to any job helping the cause. If spare workers can be used to help produce masks, medical equipment or ventilators, send them there. If supermarkets, hospitals or food banks need workers, send them there. If the problem persists, hire people to build our roads, schools and other infrastructure… Anything that needs to be done, pay people to do it. 

3. Give People Money.

Everyone, no matter their job, has taken a financial hit from COVID-19. The lucky have only seen their pension funds tumble. The unlucky will emerge from lockdown with rent and loans unpaid, starting in an impossible position. 

I’m no fan of a Universal Basic Income (UBI), both for its inefficiency, and for its failure to promote work. But in the short term, we need one. The vast numbers unable to work during the lockdown should make both concerns irrelevant. 

Many other governments are doing this in some form already. But they are imperfect. The US government’s tax credit is based on outdated income, the Australian stimulus misses recent casual workers - the perhaps the most at risk in our economy. 

To avoid either pitfall, the government should give money directly to everyone in the country. A single, one-off payment of $1000 to every New Zealander would cost a fraction of the coming deficits, but could help clear overdue rent payments, utility bills and credit card debts. 

When we decide we want to kickstart the economy again, there is no better way to do it than give people money. 

4. Nationalise if you have to. Don’t let companies go under. 

Losing Women’s Day or North & South won’t change our economy alone, but they reflect a wider problem. As businesses close competition becomes abandoned, and new monopolies emerge. Companies which survive the crisis will do so with fewer rivals, and sometimes none at all.

 A market economy can’t function properly without competition. As Financial Timeseconomic commentator Martin Wolf has shown, an increase in mergers, and decrease in new companies since the 1980s has made our economies less effective. Rather than trying to compete and offer the best product or service, companies increasingly try to buy out their competitors, and make it hard for rivals to compete. 

 If too many businesses are allowed to fail, we will face an unparalleled crisis of competition once we emerge from lockdown, and the rebuilding process will be even longer and more painful. We cannot let this happen. 

 The government has been right to extend loans to small businesses - but we shouldn’t be afraid of nationalisation either. The offer from Bauer Media to purchase their assets for $1 is a start, and will help us build up new companies in the aftermath of this crisis. 

The measures will have to be applied on a far wider scale than just Bauer Media.  For some industries, the Air New Zealand model of mixed government ownership will be better going forward. Other industries will be better suited for a return to private ownership. These decisions can be made in time, but what is crucial, is that we have industries left once this is over.  

5. Rebuild our exporters.

The World Trade Organisation says the collapse in global trade could be the worst in a generation. Their projections could see us lose a third of global trade. For a small, trading economy like New Zealand, this could be a disaster. 

Even worse when we consider the impact on our biggest exporter: tourism. No matter when the lockdown ends, it will be longer before the border opens. Exporting tourism around the world will be nearly impossible with quarantines, travel bans, and floundering airlines. We will have to find new products to sell to the world. 

Rather than abandoning trade and looking inwards, we should do the opposite. Our exporters will struggle to win footholds in new markets. It’s vital that we help them. 

New Zealand should introduce a blanket subsidy for all exports over the next few years. Doing so would help us find out what we can sell, and help overcome new barriers put up by lockdowns. It will also help our businesses innovate and find new products to sell overseas, replacing less viable industries like tourism. While temporary, export promotion would help us adapt quickly to the new economy. 

These are only a few of the measures needed to repair the damage from the virus. But they would reflect a wider shift in government policy - and illustrate a government unafraid of intervening to bail out New Zealand. 

This coming recovery will have to be treated like a wartime economy - focused solely on preserving our way of life. No matter what we do, no matter how much we spend, it won’t be enough.