As the Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, said tonight, no-one wanted this. The news that Covid-19 is back out in the community - and is almost certainly the first appearance of the delta variant in New Zealand is undeniably bad news. It’s what we all feared and knew was coming. As David Skegg’s group said last week, it was always a matter of when, not if. It stinks.

And now it’s here, in the body of a 58 year-old man from Devonport, Auckland. And you know what? Despite the fears so many are feeling tonight, this might just be yet another stroke of luck for New Zealand in its battle with Covid-19.

As of about two weeks ago the World Health Organisation was reporting that the delta variant had reached more than 130 countries. As Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said tonight, we’ve had delta in New Zealand since June, just in the relative safety of MIQ facilities. As the government reported last week when the Skegg report was finally released, since July 19 all 79 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand have been the delta variant. And with this Devonport man showing no connections to the border, it raises the question whether it’s one of those 79 cases that has somehow infected him.

Given how infectious this variant is, where there is one person with Covid-19 there will likely be more. And just how fast we can contain them will be critical in every sense of the word.

So no, no-one wanted this. It stinks. The nationwide level four lockdown for three days - seven days in Auckland and the Coromandel - is undoubtedly the right and necessary move given the risk we now face. But while the “go hard” part is certainly welcome, to hear the Prime Minister again using the “go early” part tonight sticks in the craw somewhat. This time, it sounds more like spin.

In July I wrote about my concerns that the government had taken its foot off the gas and could no longer lay claim to being the “go hard, go early” government of 2020. I was hardly the only one. New, approved vaccines were becoming available with no plan to use them, GPs were complaining about being shut out of the vaccine rollout and worn down with fussy bureaucracy, many New Zealanders eligible for vaccination were still waiting for invitations, saliva testing wasn’t being used, and plans to start bringing in foreign workers had been drifting for months.

Since then the picture hasn’t got much brighter. While the vaccine rollout has started to speed up, we’ve learned that fully seven months after they were able, a third of all port workers haven’t had a single dose. The Group Three rollout was slow and messy. The government hasn’t been able to articulate a plan for boosters next year. We have no plan to build even one purpose-built MIQ centre. Saliva testing is still hardly being used. We have no plans to vaccinate children. And so on.

Today’s news of delta in the community is precisely why some of us have been so concerned at the lack of urgency shown by the government this year. It’s been riding its luck. Today that luck ran out.

Or did it?

No-one wanted this. What we did want was to be better prepared, more immunised, with better systems in place. This afternoon it was easy to focus on these failings and think of the time we’ve wasted, the chances to build our defences that haven’t been taken.

But then Ardern and Bloomfield walked up to the podium and started to give the initial details of this new delta case. And as the few initial details were shared, I thought “…just maybe…”. While it’s early days and we need to await more news, the initial information suggests our luck may… just may… be holding.

Luck, you say? Are you kidding me, when we’re all heading into another level four lockdown? Hear me out.

We know that this case is an older man. Thankfully there’s been no mention of children or wider family living with him and his wife. There’s no mention of schools, churches or larger social organisations being involved.

While the infected man isn’t vaccinated, his wife has had both doses. He’s been a reliable user of the Covid app, tracking his movements. Bless them both for that! It could have been much worse. Happily, it looks as if he works in a small business, so his potential to share it with workmates seems to be small. Phew.

It looks like we will be able to know by tomorrow all the places he’s been, so others can quickly isolate themselves.

While it would have been nicer to have had more time, another stroke of luck is that the case didn’t come two weeks ago, when vaccination rates were much lower. And it comes at a time when GPs are ramping up their work. So even if mass events are considered too dangerous, we no longer have all our vaccination eggs in their basket. GPs can pick up the slack in a way they couldn’t have just days ago.

The Skegg report was made public last week and the government had warned that a case of delta Covid in the community would likely lead to a short, sharp shock. So people are somewhat mentally prepared for this. They have also been warned that delta could overload our health system in record time, so any thoughts of complacency we might have awoken with this morning are a luxury we can no longer afford.

Then, of course, there’s the spectre of Sydney. We have a prime example of what not to do in our own neighbourhood and many will be motivated to do whatever it takes to avoid New Zealand having to endure the same restrictions and misery. We’ve had weeks to learn what it’s like if we get this wrong; another piece of good fortune for Aotearoa.

Finally, the luckiest bit of all may be that it is an in-your-face reminder of how much damage Covid-19 can do, how precarious our health and wealth are in this country, and how much more there is to be done for us to be safe. This lucky lockdown may in some be ways the ideal wake-up call for New Zealand.

We have been riding our luck and our team of five million has lost focus. Now, we face a short, sharp shock. But hopefully is acts as the kick up the bum New Zealand needed. And hopefully at minimal cost.

We might yet be able to count our lucky stars that this scare comes a time when the highly charged fears and anxiety so many are feeling tonight can be turned into action. Vaccin-action!

If vaccinations start again in 48 hours, this could be the turning point that convinces people to shake off their hesitancy and apathy and get jabbed. It could be the real-life marketing campaign we need to cut through the doubt and misinformation. And it could be the turning point that forces the government to push harder.

If, as we might hope from what we know about this case, this might - just might - be a relatively contained case, then we might get the kick up the bum we all need but with minimal cost. If that turns out to be true, then we will be able to look back at this as the lucky lockdown.