On March 17, Finance Minister Grant Robertson was quick out of the blocks with an economic rescue package to help businesses through the inevitable recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Robertson had pulled together a scheme in short order that so far seems to have saved many jobs. In his announcement he proudly said:

“This package is one of the largest in the world on a per capita basis. It represents 4.0% of GDP and is more than the total of all three Budgets’ new operating spending in this term of Government put together.”

In his interviews following the $12.1 billion package, Robertson said he wasn’t going to sugar coat things. It was going to get difficult for many businesses and he would not be able to save them all. The coalition government’s prompt actions won praise, with economist Shamubeel Eaqub, for example, saying the package could be the difference between a recession and a depression.

But there was a key part of this announcement that stood out for me at the time. Robertson said:

“I want to make it clear that this is not a one-off package, it is just the beginning. As we go through this crisis towards economic recovery the Government will be constantly monitoring the situation and adjusting its response. As with every action we have taken we will be constantly reviewing every measure to ensure it is getting to the people and businesses that need it the most”.

He also promised “tailor-made” support for big businesses.

Today marks two weeks since the package was revealed. Since that time the country has gone into lockdown, with many businesses and the border not just restricted but completely shuttered. For many the economic agony is life or death.

A few days after New Zealand’s rescue package was announced, Australia released its version. The Scott Morrison-led government offered a package nearer to 10 percent of that country’s GDP. Last week Donald Trump announced America’s package, which also sat at around 10 percent of GDP, while in Britain the Boris Johnson government announced a package including government-backed loans worth up to 15 percent of Britain’s GDP.

Yes, since then Robertson has rightly moved the goalposts somewhat. Parliament voted him $52 billion to stave off economic collapse before they were able to meet again. And he told Stuff this past weekend that the existing economic rescue package would likely cost a lot more than the initial $12.1b over the allotted 12 weeks. He said:

“We are probably somewhere around the $20 billion mark”.

But even with that significant inflation of the scheme, the obvious question remains… when does Robertson move again? What will spark another package? While $585 per week for full-time employees keeps some wolves from the door, it won’t save companies for long whose order books have dried up altogether or whose workflow has ceased flowing.

Our $12.1b package at four percent of GDP is looking thinner as the days go by; one finger in the dyke as other holes appear. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said today that a third of that initial package - $4.1 billion - has already been paid out to over 600,000 workers. So money is flowing. But is it enough?

While we can still export food and dairy, the tourism, immigration and construction growth that have sustained us this past decade have dried up almost completely. Some companies will be counting the days they can survive, not the weeks or months.

Waiting for the May Budget is too far. Too many businesses could be sunk by then. And if we want to be able to move strongly after the lockdown on major infrastructure projects, for example, we need to be sure businesses survive to be able to do that work.

So if, as Robertson said initially, this is “just the beginning” the question becomes when he takes the next step. What more can he do here in New Zealand to stop businesses falling over in the next month or two? How else can he use that rainy day fund he is so proud of?

Two weeks on from that beginning package, it feels like Robertson needs to get on with package #2.