He’s done it. The re-election of Donald Trump as US president is a massive shift in US and global politics. Cool heads and steely-eyes are called for at momentous times such as this, but those steely eyes would have to be closed tight not to see this is a moment that will go down in history. For a man who wrongly claims so many things he does are “the greatest ever”, this time he’s right. It’s one of the great political comebacks.

What has he achieved? He is the only politician other than Grover Cleveland in 1982, to lose and then win-back the US presidency. Americans have historically dispensed with yesterday’s presidents. Trump has overcome that American instinct. He’s also the first convicted felon to be elected as president. In May this year he was found guilty on 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election by paying hush money to a former porn star, who says the two had sex. Finally, he’s won in a way that most politicians and political observers, just a decade or less ago, would have said was impossible. He refused to concede defeat after an election loss and encouraged an insurrection. He has called his opponent “vermin” and an “idiot” (he mouthed that Kamala Harris is a “bitch” just a couple of days ago), called independent media “the enemy of the people”, has been accused of assault by at least 26 women, many of his former White House staff have publicly said he’s unfit for office, and one of them, his former Chief of Staff, revealed Trump had told him “Hitler did some good things”. The laws of political physics in a democracy have been turned upside down.

And it’s a comprehensive victory; he’s won the popular vote and looks to be winning the electoral college at a canter. Perhaps, if I try to apply that cool head, this election will come to be seen in more traditional terms – the same kind of vote against incumbency we’ve seen in Britain, Germany, Japan and of course New Zealand in the past year. Perhaps it’s a more normal cry for economic help after rampant inflation. But you only have to have heard Trump’s own words – let alone the words of his nearest and dearest such as Stephen Miller and Elon Musk – to think it’s more than that. Trump promised just last week that he would be a protector of women, “whether they like it or not”. It’s reasonable to expect him to act in his own best interests and to re-arrange the furniture of US politics, whether Americans like it or not.

So the question becomes: what does he do with this remarkable victory? What will the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement do with power second time round? The truth is, we really don’t know. When you hear commentary from those in and around his camp and those who know them, there are factions, as there are in any movement. Some argue that Trump simply wanted to remove the stain of “loser” from his name and once he is sated with the revenge he has openly says he wants, others will do the hard work of running the country. Others say he remains the strongman at MAGA’s heart. The power struggle now around Trump is likely to be immense, as it is with all ‘strongman’ leaders.

Whichever way the castle politics go, I use the word “strongman” intentionally. Because for me the most remarkable – and terrifying – part of this election is that America has voted for a shift away from what has been conventional democracy since at least the end of World War II. In the wake of two world wars and the Great Depression, western leaders knew that bombast, extreme nationalism and authoritarian tones would not be tolerated by a population who had lost so much in fights against tyranny, oligarchies and fascism. Guardrails were built to protect us from horrors. That has clearly changed. Generations more distant from that reality seem to have softened their stance and are less wed to what have become the norms of democracy. As many others have warned, democracy was on the ticket this election and without the “grown-ups in the room” as there were in Trump’s first term and with learned experience, the extremists around Trump will have more power. Many of them see a liberal democracy as a weakness. They prefer authoritarian regimes and oligarchies. Do you think Elon Musk is in the tent to serve the American people? Or his own business interests and the interests of the wealthy elite who think they should just be allowed to get on with making the big decisions? Who needs “we, the people”?

Because let’s be clear about one thing – while this is a move right for the US, it is not a win for conservatives. Sure, fundamentalist Christians will get their dues and abortion rights will be diminished, but conservatives value solidity, security, sound institutions.

If you read my analysis piece last week, you’ll have seen I quoted a New York Times/Sienna College poll of the battleground states that showed 40% of voters wanted a president who “"promises to fundamentally change America". Fully 14% wanted the system “torn down”. (It also may help explain this result, somewhat).

It seems like they will have their way and we’re about to embark on a new era of US politics – and if the US shifts on its orbit that much, it will pull the tide of politics with it all over the world.

With a compliant Supreme Court and Senate, and perhaps even the House of Representatives, for at least two years Trump and his advisors will have immense power. What will they do with it?

An isolationist America looks inevitable – closed borders, protectionist trade policies, a withdrawal of military engagement. Under Trump, expect America to be closer to the strongman countries of the world than its traditional allies, including New Zealand. Say a prayer for the people of Ukraine, and even of Taiwan, tonight. And the New Zealand government will have to think long and hard about its moves to get closer to the US and the importance of our independent foreign policy in a new and volatile diplomatic world. It’s easy to imagine more traditional democracies forming a closer alliance apart from the US and New Zealand becoming even more reliant on Asia for trade.

An anti-immigrant stance has always been a powerful tool in politics of most kinds, and Trump has leant into that more than any other policy platform, promising to protect jobs in the Midwest and southwest, with a strong strain of xenophobia. He has promised mass deportations ranging from a couple of million to maybe 50 million. Either way, the upheaval across the US will be huge and painful, because legal and illegal immigrants do not fit into nice, separate boxes.

Tariffs and tax cuts? Of course, but how much and on/for whom, we don’t know. But the march of globalization, already stalled in recent years, will now be turned around.

Trump’s win also punches a hole in the balloon of what’s been called woke politics. As muddled and weaponized as that word has become, you know what I mean. Liberal, urban activists will have to reckon with the reality that they have not won the argument with the majority. The Democrats backed Black Lives Matter and other minority rights movements, spoke of a more liberal border policy, acted on climate change. But it’s been clear the majority of voting Americans aren’t buying what they’re selling; the Democrats’ progressive “squad” couldn’t even get key members through their primaries as the Democrats realized their values would not win elections. Kamala Harris in her short campaign played the centre – said nothing about paid-parental leave, student loan forgiveness, or minority rights. Her big policy play was a tax cut. Yet again, American have elected Trump over a woman. Centre-left parties which want to win elections will be concentrating much more on that ‘centre’ psrt, thinking more about economic and class politics than identity politics.

Precisely because Donald Trump is so volatile, so driven by ego and self-interest and so little by policy and ideology, it’s impossible to know what the next four years hold. Will the change merely be big or will he “tear it all down”? Either way it will undoubtedly be a test for democracy as we’ve known it and the institutions we’ve relied on for generations. We’ll get to see just how strong those guardrails are.