Winston Peters is in the fight for his political life. New Zealand First’s poll levels are terminal and have been since 2018 and voters are showing no sign of riding to its rescue, the SFO has charged two people involved with the New Zealand First Foundation and his opponents have written him off as “chaotic” and “irrelevant”. So when he arrived at the Newshub Nation Powerbroker’s debate Thursday night (which screened this morning on Three), it felt like a place for Peters to start the fight back.

Peters has long been the master of the fight back, scraping over the five percent party vote threshold or famously dragging his party back into parliament in 2011. While he never became New Zealand’s first Maori Prime Minister, as some predicted when he was a rising star of the National Party, over more than four decades he has become one of New Zealand’s great parliamentarians, a devout constitutionalist and a unique political force, if one often beset by ethics scandals of his own making.

With two weeks to go it’s again do or die. In 2011, when TVNZ introduced the three percent poll threshold for minor parties taking part in its debate, he squeaked in thanks to rounding up from 2.9 percent and then delivered a performance that gave him the momentum he needed to return to parliament.

So the scene was set for another Peter’s rally at the Newshub debate in Grey Lynn. He took the stage alongside the Maori Party’s John Tamihere, the Green Party’s Marama Davidson and ACT’s David Seymour.

An hour later, though, and we were still waiting for the fight to come. The moment had passed with none of Peters’ expected fire; instead the pretender looks to have taken his throne. More on that in a minute. As for Peters himself, he was genial, a font of history and still had the chutzpah to, like on stage, order moderator Simon Shepherd to come to him last in the summing up. Peters has always had a think about getting the last word and from personal experience I can tell you he’s threatened to walk off set if he doesn’t get his way.

But Peters the debate master had not appeared. He had slept-walked his way through the show, looking as if he was resigned to his fate rather than being its commander.

Talking to the panel, after the debate Shepherd accidentally spoke about the three candidates with him on stage. Quick as a cat, panellist Lisa Owen asked if he had forgotten Peters was on stage, given he gave such a forgettable performance.

His defence on the SFO charges was, well, defensive. His defence of the coalition’s track record was just that the country had done well and cooperation is a delicate thing. He said no to a two tier approach to child welfare when Shepherd asked about reforming Oranga Tamariki, but never burst into a full-throated race-based speech. On housing he said they inherited a massive supply problem from National, then rather meekly said “we haven’t turned it around yet”.

When John Tamihere - who was by far the most passionate speaker on stage - said at least he wasn’t ashamed to be Maori - a clear and outrageously offensive suggestion that Peters is - the New Zealand First leader did not rise to the bait.

Further down the row of minor party leaders - and they are all back being minor parties in this election - David Seymour was the man with the quips and the energy. It’s been on display all year and has been slowly coming into focus this campaign. It seemed especially sharp this night in suburban Auckland. Seymour is becoming the new Peters. We are seeing a campaign-long abdication as the ACT leader takes on Peters’ role as the anti-establishment, straight talking party leader stalking the fringes of mainstream politics and ‘telling it like it is’. Seymour is the new wise-cracker, the new ‘stick it ep ‘em’ guy, the new banter-master.

No, I’m not saying Seymour has anything like Peters’ pedigree and claim to history. I’m not saying he ever will. Peters career increasing looks like one we will never see the like of again, although who knows what the future holds. Seymour is still a young Jedi mastering the force, but Peters is increasingly looking like a late in life Yoda who knows his long run at the top is nearly done.

It stood out in their answers on Thursday night. Peters talked about the Maori battalion, 1991 policies, the sins of Rogernomics and. his old favourite hero, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew. But the audience he is speaking to is increasingly deaf to those characters and events from a by-gone era.

In stark contrast, Seymour pointed not to Singapore, but to Taiwan and its Covid response. His hot takes were of the now, not the then. And when he spoke about his role in parliament, it was not about his pride in being a handbrake on government, but in how ACT has both stood on principle and compromised with other parties to get laws passed. He spoke to the urgency of the times, while it felt like Peters was speaking to ghosts. To listen to ACT’s message this campaign is to hear the tweak’s Seymour has made - no more flat tax, a list with women and Maori near the top, a willingness to spend taxpayers’ money on health. Sure, the odd mix of libertarian and conservative values are still there, with a 10% cut through the public sector promised and beneficiaries forced to spend their benefits only on approved items controlled by a state-issued card. But Toto, you’re not in the Don Brash party any more.

Peters, by contrast is peddling the same wares he has for a generation. Thus far he’s bet it all on voters returning to his old familiar, the same lines, the same ideas. But it seems the phone is off the hook. For whatever reason, voters have moved on. Reporters on the trail with Peters speaking to people on his walkabouts report them saying it’s awesome the money the regions have got from the Provincial Growth Fund, but they have no intention of rewarding that largesse with their support at the election.

The polls are certainly rewarding Seymour’s fresher approach and he seems to be picking up a fair chunk of New Zealand First’s ‘stick it up ‘em’ vote. The ‘take out insurance’ line seems to be falling short; trust in Jacinda Ardern seems to be too high for it to be a motivating message. The centre-right voters who might want insurance really wanted him to choose Bill English three years ago and it seems they haven’t forgiven him.

Can Peters pivot somehow in the final two weeks? Nothing is impossible, but it looks unlikely. Where could the leverage he needs some from? He has Queen-maker potential on one or two percent and seemingly no new ideas. As I say, his performance in this debate smelt of resignation and man making one last jaunt around his old haunts.

The master of the fight back is running out of time to land any punches.