Fears over military stoush between US and nuclear-ambitious Iran lessen; US and China plan talks over Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng, now in US custody in Beijing; Japan and US to discuss further economic and defense ties; Sudan declares state of emergency; Spain's economy continues to contract; French journalist missing in Colombia, thought to have been abducted by FARC; and more

Top of the Agenda: Lessening of War Fears Over Iran?

Fears over an imminent military confrontation between the United States and Iran over the latter's controversial nuclear program have receded, according to a New York Times report today. Western economic sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector prompted the Iranian government to be more flexible in direct negotiations with the United States and other world powers, held in Istanbul two weeks ago, the Times said. Negotiations are set to resume in Baghdad next month. At the same time, there is a growing debate within Israel over launching a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, which has delayed the possibility of an immediate attack, experts said.

Analysis

"Yet even if the third time for the fuel-swap proposal proves to be the charm, the political conditions in both Washington and Tehran will make it exceptionally difficult to build on any initial momentum. In Washington, Obama might claim the deal as a vindication of his Iran policy, but Republicans would surely criticize it as an insufficient ploy that only buys time for Tehran to race across the nuclear threshold," writes Suzanne Maloney for ForeignAffairs.com.

"The tone has certainly changed, in part because the Iranians understand that the harsh tone was not serving them well. Second of all, two factors have come together that have impacted their decision-making--it is impossible to disaggregate them--which is more important: the unprecedented economic distress or the threat of Israeli military strike?" CFR's Ray Takeyh said in this CFR Interview.

"To be sure, the public seems to want exactly what President Obama wants, which is to resolve this stand-off diplomatically. Yet it is striking how, in the absence of strong war-talk from the White House -- indeed, given all the poor-mouthing of the military option from administration officials --there is still a reservoir of public support for the hawkish policy," writes Peter Feaver for ForeignPolicy.com.

 

PACIFIC RIM

U.S. Sends Senior Diplomat to China

The Obama administration sent senior diplomat Kurt M. Campbell to Beijing to negotiate with Chinese officials (NYT) over the escape from house arrest last week of dissident Chen Guangcheng, who is thought to now be in U.S. custody in Beijing. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled to visit China for official talks later this week.

JAPAN: Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington today to discuss expanding economic and defense ties (BBC), as well as North Korea's failed rocket launch earlier this month.

In this CFR Policy Innovation Memorandum, Sheila A. Smith argues that the time has come for Japan and the United States to set priorities for military missions, formalize mechanisms for crisis management coordination, and work toward a long-term basing strategy that consolidates U.S. and Japanese facilities.

 

ELSEWHERE:

Sudan declares state of emergency

Spain's economy on downward slide

French journalist missing in Colombia

 

This is an excerpt of the CFR.org Daily News Brief. The full version is available on CFR.org.