The Roy Morgan poll says it's close, and Pundit can exclusively reveal that internal Labour polling has the centre-left bloc AHEAD

Just to add some spice to your last minute calculations and political ponderings, Roy Morgan has released its election eve poll and, at odds with the other polls, it has National just 7.5 percent ahead of Labour and the Maori Party holding the balance of power.

Moreover, Pundit understands that Labour's own internal polling has Labour and the Greens combined one point ahead of National and Act. That's right, ahead. Labour's polling is done by UMR and is highly regarded, but it must be said, with four other major polls telling the story of a very different trend, any Labour/Green supporters shouldn't get over-excited. It could mean something or nothing.

But it suggests, however, as I've already written today, that media should be very cautious in its predictions that National has this election locked up.

Here's what the Roy Morgan polls shows:

On the eve of the 2008 Election the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 42% (down 1%), a 7.5% lead over the Labour Party at 34.5% (up 2.5%).

Support for the Greens 10% (down 1.5%) is near its record high of 11.5%, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (unchanged), ACT NZ 4% (up 0.5%), the Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and Others and Independents 1.5% (down 0.5%).

What's occurred to me during the day is that with the Greens and ACT both seeming to grow more support in the past week, whichever government we end up is likely to be less centrist than the one we've had for the past three years. The Greens will pull Labour left or ACT will pull National right.

Whatever your preference, the important thing tomorrow is that you VOTE.

Comments (2)

by Craig Ranapia on November 07, 2008
Craig Ranapia

Moreover, Pundit understands that Labour's own internal polling has Labour and the Greens combined one point ahead of National and Act. That's right, ahead. Labour's polling is done by UMR and is highly regarded, but it must be said, with four other major polls telling the story of a very different trend, any Labour/Green supporters shouldn't get over-excited. It could mean something or nothing.

Just as a matter of interest, Tim, does Labour release full data from its internal polling or did you just have someone ring you up for a goss?

But it suggests, however, as I've already written today, that media should be very cautious in its predictions that National has this election locked up.

No, Tim, it screams that someone should avoid using party spin as evidence in support of an already determined thesis.  Thank whatever Gods you do -- or don't -- believe in that this campaign is just over an hour from over.

 

 

by on May 08, 2012
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