It's been a bad week for the government and good for the Greens. Is the luck of the parties turning?
But is it enough to change the campaign trajectory? That's the question around what's turned into a dire week for the National Party.
Labour, you've got to say, has had terrible luck this term. Every time there seemed to be some poll movement or National wobbled (BMWs, for example), a natural disaster, mine explosion or own-goal by one of its own MPs came to the government's rescue.
National, by contrast, has been incredibly lucky. Some have said the opposite, that National has been unlucky having to cuts its plans and reshape its policies to handle the expense of the earthquakes and risks of the seemingly unkillable global financial crisis. From a governance point of view, they're right. Politically, it's made for a cakewalk of a first term.
Prime Ministers revel in disaster - they're very hard to get wrong. You can't be blamed for nature, yet you get to look strong, caring and decisive all in one go.
Luck, however, is fickle and it has turned in the past week. But how far? And who to?
This week, National has conspired to struggle with the Rena spill. Complacency? Bad advice? A lack of preparedness? It's not clear yet, but the impression left is of a flat-footed government.
That comes on the back of the Radio Live show, which keeps bubbling along, and the increase in the EQC levy. Then there's the S&P email. In itself, it's not a major. But it becomes part of a narrative that turns John Key's strengths into his weaknesses.
This is how politics works - I've said it before. We end up hating the things we used to love in our leaders. Helen Clark went from strong to nanny. Key will go from likeable and relaxed to loose and unreliable. It's just a matter of when.
One year? Three? Six?
ACT, by the by, seems to be unable to repay National's faith and win over the sceptics of Epsom, according to the Herald's poll this week.
And to cap it off, news today that the national median house price fell by NZ$5,000 to NZ$350,000, or -1.4%, in September compared with August, plus rumours that Richie McCaw's injury may be worse than first thought (hopefully, that's terrible, ugly hearsay!)
It all means that when the election campaign proper kicks off in two weeks, there will be elements of doubt and chance that weren't there two weeks ago.
The next round of polls will be interesting, but you've got to say that opportunity is knocking for the Greens in particular. Already looking strong in the polls - 11.5 percent in the Roy Morgan on September 25 - the Rena gives them another platform.
As Ron Mark joked on Q+A's web-only panel on Sunday, if you didn't know better you'd think the Greens ran the Rena aground on purpose! It's a political god-send.
Oh yes, luck has jumped around this past fortnight. It's just a reminder for us all that we don't know what's round the corner. Maybe it'll jump back. But all politicians, even the Nats, so strong for so long, should remember the old song:
They call you lady luck
But there is room for doubt
At times you have a very un-lady-like way
Of running out