Labour head in to their annual conference this weekend, and their Party members are likely to be feeling pretty confident about their chances of returning to Government in 2020.
However, it would be smart for them to keep their hubris in check by taking a quick trip across the ditch, where the Australian Labor Party (the ALP) thought they would too romp home at their election.
In March this year, Liberal incumbent Scott Morrison pulled off a shock win in the Australia federal election. The win was so unexpected, that a betting agency paid out two days before election day because they were so sure an ALP government was a given.
And there was good reasons for people to think this. The ALP had ‘won’ 56 consecutive Newspolls leading up to the election, and the days of chaotic leadership changes seemed well behind them.
The ALP has just released their election campaign analysis. This wrap up is standard practice by most political parties post an election – trying to take the lessons of the campaign and use them in the future. However, what makes this review interesting is that it is frank and comprehensive on why the ALP lost, and that it has been released in full to the public. So shocking the loss in March that the party has little concern in hanging their dirty laundry out for all to see.
So what can NZ Labour take away from this review?
Don’t over-complicate your policy agenda – the ALP released 250 costed policies in the lead up to the election. When you take in to account that in Australia, the states deliver a significant portion of government services, you have to wonder what they were talking about. NZ Labour has convened over 100 working groups and reviews – many of which are either still to report or the Government is yet to form a response to. The temptation would be to turn the recommendations from these reports in to election promises. The clear advice from Australia is don’t. There this cluttered policy agenda was confusing to voters, and looked risky – how was it all going to be paid for?
Don’t get caught by a grievance culture - the Review found that the ALP had become too distant from its grassroots. The traditional working class regional voter had been pushed aside in favour of addressing what they called political grievances like LGBQTI rights. They found that in Australia, working people were experiencing “economic dislocation caused by technological change” and those people believed that the ALP wasn’t focused on supporting them because they were too focused on progressive social issues. The NZ Labor Government has put significant focus on issues like abortion reform, and the election next year could be dominated by marijuana and euthanasia referenda. They will need to find a way through this to demonstrate to their base that they haven’t forgotten them.
Don’t assume you are going to win – so strong was the expectation that the ALP was going to win that the factions and third party supporters spent their time jostling for policy positions from the ALP rather than fighting the Government. It is prudent advice to the unions and progressive movements here that you need to be in government to deliver your policies.
The Review provides many more insights – 60 findings and 8 recommendations – and a lot do not apply to the NZ Labour Party. We have significantly different demographics, non-compulsory voting, and NZ Labour has a very popular leader (unlike the disappointed former opposition leader Bill Shorten).
However the key insight that all political parties should take from this Review – don’t assume you can take any votes for granted.