It's all about the election today: new polls and leaders on the trail
ELECTION SPECIAL
A burst of last minute polls dominated the papers this morning, with all of them predicting a change in government after tomorrow's election.
- The New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll survey has National on 47.9 percent, down 2.5 points. But it's enough for National to be able to govern with ACT (1.8%/2 seats) and United Future (0.7%/1), without the Maori Party. Labour fell "only slightly" to 36.4 percent. The Greens are on 5.8 percent and New Zealand First is on 3.9 percent, failing to return to parliament. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percent.
- Under the headline, 'Time for a Change', The Fairfax-Nielsen poll gives National an 18 point lead, 49 percent to Labour's 31 percent. That means National doesn't need the Maori Party. New Zealand First is "flatlining" on three percent". But Tracy Watkins writes that Helen Clark may have a point in dismissing the polls as "all over the place". Miss Clark has history on her side. Most major polls got it wrong last election, after underestimating the impact of Labour's push to turn out Pacific Island voters.
- The Press says National is "just short of the level needed to vote alone". The Greens register 8 percent support, enough for 10 seats, while there's a late surge for ACT, moving it from one percent to four percent. The paper points out that at least ten percent of voters say they're still undecided, warily watching the polls before they choose a party to support. Those voters could yet turn the election.
- The Otago Daily Times doesn't have a poll of its own to push, but says it expects "National to win the election tomorrow in a canter".
- In the last two TV polls... the One News/Colmar Brunton poll has National "steady" on 47 percent with Labour on 35 percent. The Greens are on nine percent, ACT on 2.5 percent. National, ACT and United Future could govern - just. The TV3/TNS poll, which was the most accurate in 2005, has National up to 46 percent and Labour down from its last poll to 33 percent. It too shows a last minute boost to ACT and the Greens holding at nine percent.
John Key is spending his final two days on the campaign trail flying round the country in a charter plane. Yesterday he touched down in Nelson, Christchurch, Taupo and Napier. The Press says in Christchurch the National leader clashed with hecklers, calling them "idiots". National and Labour party supporters shouted at each other during a bad-tempered rally in Cathedral Square.
Helen Clark spent her day visiting malls and factories in Manukau. She was joined at the mall by rugby league stars Stacey Jones and Wairangi Koopu.
Winston Peters headed to the Rimutaka electorate, for what the DominionPost called his "last stand". Peters chose to abandon Tauranga to support his party's heir apparent Ron Mark.