John Key's trip to the US can be defined by a single line on Letterman... we come as friends and we really, really like you. Now let's do some business
As John Key enjoys a break in Florida, commentators are widely describing his trip to America is deemed a success. But by what standards? What strategy has he advanced?
After his early flight to Peru for APEC just days after winning office, the Prime Minister's first major trip was to China. At the time some said it was a statement of intent, but since then there was been little focus on Asia. The Key administration seems to have two foreign policy goals: re-positioning New Zealand close to its old Anglo-Pacific allies and growing business. In many ways those two aims go hand-in-hand.
Reviewing the work this government has done in foreign affairs paints a pretty clear picture. From withdrawing our bid for a seat on the Human Rights Council at the United Nations, reputedly to give the US a clear run (although all the evidence suggests both New Zealand and the US would have won seats should we have continued with our bid), to our decision to send the SAS back into Afghanistan, we have worked hard to earn America's love. We are now worthy of the much-coveted tag, "ally".
Key's trip to America last week can be defined by that number one reason given at the end of his Top Ten list on the Late Show. "Unlike most of the world, we still like Americans", Key said. While Key said the lines were crafted by David Letterman's writers, that line was surely his. It was his message all week: We're back in the alliance, we're a team player, even when others have a go we're with you.
He's right to assume that line will godown very nicely with the local audience; Americans love nothing more than being loved. It justifies their sense of national greatness and manifest destiny.
A similar method is on display with Australia; except with them we're not just on the same team, we're twins. What's your emissions trading scheme going to look like? We'll do the same. Your emissions reduction target? We'll copy that. Tax? Check. Defence? Check. We couldn't be any closer without becoming the eighth state.
All of this seems to stem less from the politics of diplomacy and identity, which drove the previous government, and more from the politics of business. This National government has concluded, like so many National governments before them, that we are essentially a trading nation and that defines us.
It's not an unreasonable conclusion, so far as it goes. Trade is vital. Our geography has always meant we've had to work harder than most to earn our way in the world. A trade focus in foreign policy is healthy. The question is whether that's all we are. At our best we've been a country of values as well. Here's hoping that's not forgotten during our current realignment.
Because this government has gone further than most down the trade-as-foreign-policy path. It has opened the door for further foreign ownership in New Zealand, with its overseas investment review, for example. It has even gone so far as to appoint a businessman to run MFAT.
This is New Zealand Inc in action. And its in that light that we should see Key's visit to the US; as a CEO building relationships with customers and drumming up businessman.
Key's speech to the General Assembly was similarly focused. Little expression of higher values, no suggestion of sacrifice, just a plea for policies of benefit to, well, us. We must crack the Doha round, Key said. We believe climate change is important too, Key said (although our reduction target is hardly, to use one of the Prime Minister's favourite words, "ambitious"). We want progress on nuclear disarmament (because that's what America wants). We want other countries to join us in a research effort to cut emissions from agriculture...
That last is significant and smart and shows some vision. It stresses again that if Obama's new mantra for America is 'strength through dialogue', Keys is 'growth through relationships'. By that standard, yes, the trip stateside was a success. But the real success of that strategy is economic growth without selling our national values down the river. That's the challenge we should hold this government too.
One test will be our bid for a seat on the Security Council in 2015-16. While Key says he's optimistic, the truth is less rosy. Labour initiated the bid in 2007, confident that the South Pacific hadn't had a turn for some years and that its independent foreign policy only enhanced our chances. But in a rather rude gesture by diplomatic standards, Australia decided that was a great idea and subsequently announced its own bid for a Security Council seat... in 2013-14. They gave us the finger and got in ahead. Commentators in Australia are saying that Kevin Rudd's own UN visit last week advanced their cause nicely.
The real politik of the situation is that the UN is unlikely to give seats in succession to two countries from the same region and with such a similar mindset. The Aussies are trying to nick our seat from us. Will New Zealand fight back? Or will we just go along for the sake of business?
It's early days, but this government's foreign policy is already an interesting watch.