Four of New Zealand's five most senior politicians are now under 45 and one the most notable features of this term so far is the sight of party leaders struggling to exercise power and to come to terms with the big jobs
Late Sunday afternoon my six year-old was wandering around in Spiderman pants, a pirate's cape and a variety of hats. A child playing dress-up made me think of nothing so much as the leadership on display in New Zealand's 52nd parliament.
Looking at major parties nearly six months said New Zealand First announced its choice, each has a leader looking for an outfit that will suit them over the next two and a half years, yet neither has yet found one that fits. What stands out at the moment in our politics is the timidity and lack of confidence being shown across the board.
For whatever reason, it was considered impolite to note Jacinda Ardern's lack of leadership experience in last year's election campaign. But I raised it then and it would be unwise not to raise it now. It's not necessarily her age as such – although being the second youngest Prime Minister in our history is notable – as it is her limited time as leader. A late run into the job turned out to be great for winning an election, but it's much harder when you're learning your own leadership style at the same time as you're learning how to run the country. It's a big ask and she seems to be struggling.
Listening to her interviews, you hear Ardern still earnestly explaining, sometimes almost pleading for understanding. The raw confidence of that famous first press conference is seen only in flashes. She still seems to be trying on the Prime Minister's clothes, and they don't seem to quite fit.
Maybe it's just teething problems, but she's had a series of ministers who have put in at best sloppy performances in recent weeks, forgetting and mishandling sensitive issues of government. Sure, some of these have come outside her party, from the likes of Shane Jones and Eugenie Sage, but Ardern's response has lacked authority.
Ardern's power rests on her personal popularity. John Key entered government in much the same way, and over they years always had his own personal popularity and National's anti-gravity poll performance to wield as a weapon of discipline. But he quickly grew into his role and it'll be interesting to see whether Ardern can learn as fast. She needs to develop her power so that it also rests on discipline and judgement. For that reason, it's surprising she hasn't come down harder on the controversies bedevilling her government in recent weeks. She's seemed timid.
Labour's biggest problem in Opposition was a lack of discipline, and at this stage it seems they may have taken that trait into government with them. Oh, Labour MPs are no longer running around removing leaders and arguing policy amongst themselves, but they lack a sense of purpose. It's a long way, as some have over-dramatically said in the past week, from losing them the next election. However it is over-shadowing the sense of doing a new government wants to project.
Consider last week's transport announcement. The general public should be left this week with a sense that the direction of travel – literally in this case, rather than as one of Grant Robertson's over-used metaphors – has changed. A new generation is in charge. The key message could have been that after years of drift, someone has finally taken the tough, evidence-based decisions. Yeah, we need some money off you to do it, but we are taking the lead and, with your help, doing what is long overdue.
Instead, we had niggly debates about the difference between a tax and an excise. Ardern nit-picked when she could have been a new generation leader. Timid.
It's a timidity matched only by Simon Bridges. He too seems to be trying on a number of hats – the reasonable hat, the attack hat, the regional hat, the hair-splitting hat – without coming across as convincing in any of them. In the morning he's saying one thing, in the afternoon another. And he too seems to have trouble remembering things.
On Russia, he tried the 'international embarrassment' approach rather than taking on the substance of the issue and he was weak on Middlemore, giving Jonathan Coleman a (hospital!) pass when he could drawn a line between old National and his National.
The truth is, both of these leaders were appearing on TV as 'Young Guns' not that long ago. Both are under 42 years of age (their combined age is only six years older than Winston Peters) and watching how – and if – they grow into these new jobs will be one of the most fascintating political spectator sports of 2018.
Who will be the first to show the natural authority of a leader?
The same observations stands, to some extent, with the Greens and New Zealand First as well. Winston Peters can hardly be accused of timidity or inexperience, but at very least he seems to be trying on a ushanka for size. Shane Jones' cockiness and Jenny Marcroft's naivete, for example, don't exactly make New Zealand First look as though they are the grown-ups in the parliamentary playroom.
And the Greens? Well, they have a whole new leader to try on. Will Marama Davidson stick to a Metiria Turei-type outfit or can she find one that fits her style? She'll want a sparkly one that stands out, but also one that works in the suburbs, where most Green Party voters live.
Like James Shaw, Davidson is 44. So young leaders across three of the four main parties is now a sign of our times.
The point is, we're in a political moment where our leaders have their training wheels on and are still barely out of leadership creche. The leaders they become will be one of the most significant indicators of what kind of politics this country will enjoy over the rest of this term, and perhaps beyond.