Here we go. Election year is nearly upon us. Build the platforms. Bury the failures. Bring your A-game. Boost the small victories so they look seismic. And cross your fingers that ‘events, dear boy’ fall your way. Everyone in parliament – and a few of those outside it – will be using these sunny days to reflect, refresh and strategise for the big year ahead.
Tomorrow I’ll look at one big factor each of the parties needs to focus on to give themselves the best chance of achieving their goals in Election 2020. But today is the day to reflect.
In the grand sweep of history, the 52nd parliament looks like a pretty average bunch. Neither the policies nor personalities have been ones for the ages. Yet all the parties in parliament have, in truth, had a middle year they can be pretty pleased with. No-one did anything that doomed them to failure next year; to the contrary, each can claim a series of wins amongst the inevitable trials and tribulations of political life.
Despite repeated, oh-so predictable ministerial sloppiness and scandal, Labour has stayed strong enough in the polls. It’s a dark but true observation – tragedy and murder allowed Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to be at her empathetic best at home and on the world stage. (Ignore the small-minded ‘part-time’ #turnardern sniping; the publicity is all good for her and New Zealand’s place in the world). And while there were epic failures in the form of the Capital Gains Tax and Kiwibuild, Labour did get some policy done, not least of which was the Wellbeing Budget, mental health reform and gun control. Grant Robertson’s announcement that he would finally spend on infrastructure – if the projects are well chosen and roll out as he hopes over the next few months – could be huge, both for the election (note the united applause from business groups) and the next generation of New Zealanders looking to invest in this country.
Labour has struggled to make the progress it would have liked due to a weak and coalition-divided cabinet and will feel it could and should have done better with the winds blowing in its favour. But it has done just enough to end the year feeling confident.
National stayed ahead in most of the polls and Simon Bridges not only survived, but started to – if not exactly prosper – grow into his role. As he started to relax, he started to look the part and his compromise on the Zero Carbon bill showed a hint of true leadership. As with Labour, National has looked at times like a party out of its depth and lacking in the talent of previous generations. But it has found some key messages and maintained its famed discipline to hold the government to account with increasing effectiveness. The odds (and history) are against it being able to win back the Treasury benches after just one term, but it’s still in the game, which is an achievement in itself. To use sporting language, it’s not in control of its own destiny because it will need other teams to lose for it to win (the Greens and/or New Zealand First), but Bridges has kept the dream alive.
New Zealand First ends the year as arguably the most powerful and the most vulnerable it has ever been. Winston Peters made sure that he and his party were the true beneficiaries of Labour’s failings and the true power behind Ardern’s throne. Labour’s failure to introduce a Capital Gains Tax showed clear as day where the power and political cunning lies in this government. And what’s more, Peters has made sure Labour could do nothing about it except moan to each other in private.
Toss in the mixed blessing of Shane Jones and his provincial billions plus the undoubted blessing and effectiveness of Tracey Martin, and they can claim progress in 2019.
At the same time though, the party at times has looked rough and ragged. Peters is not what he was as a political operator, Jones takes a step back for every one forward, the leaks around the New Zealand First foundation could prove damaging and at least suggest he’s not as feared as he once was, and after a generation his key tactic of obstruction and obstreperousness may be wearing thin. Of course that’s been claimed before and Peters has proven observers wrong many, many times.
The Greens got the landmark Zero Carbon Bill passed this year, laying out the pathway to net zero emissions by 20250 and the creation of an independent Climate Commission to guide us along that path. That, and the start of some significant spending on public transport, have been key wins for the party this year. It’s important for its green creds – and it’s ability to see of the new Sustainable New Zealand Party – that it has made headlines for saving the environment rather than focusing too much on social justice issues. But it’s maintained a voice there and in the cannabis debate to show that it can walk and chew gum at the same time. James Shaw has helped keep the party above the five percent line in polls and while it hasn’t been as effective in its use of coalition power as New Zealand First, it has got runs on the board for its base.
Finally, David Seymour has had his best year in parliament. No, not because of his appearance on Dancing with the Stars, though that probably didn’t hurt in the end. Mostly it was because a) he went deep and strong on one issue and hit his targets and b) the events of the year (think the mosque attacks and gun control debate) allowed him to carve out a niche that suited his free-market politics. While ACT has had next to no cut-through on its supposedly key economic issues, it has found a constituency beyond the one percent it has been stuck on for years. Mostly that has come through its advocation of the End of Life bill, which goes to a referendum at next year’s election. Polls at the end of year suggest he might finally be able to get a second MP to join him in parliament.
So all-in-all a year that each party can look back on with some satisfaction. But none of it means anything if it doesn’t translate into votes next year. More on that tomorrow.