And now, election year is upon us. What a difference 24 hours makes (see yesterday’s post). And what a lesson for our politicians in terms of the discipline required as we charge towards polling day. So much can change so quickly.
Just like the passage of time, much of what can happen during an election will be out of their control. Others will make mistakes, launch attacks, speak out, not speak, change their mind, leak news, break news and make news… and ultimately voters will decide. So what can parties do that they can control?
Labour – Keep Ardern strong and clean. If she can stay in control and be at her authentic best, the election is Labour’s to lose. Her popularity and warmth is key to her party’s hopes, so the old rule must be stapled to the noticeboard in every MP’s office – ‘protect the leader at all costs’.
The flip side of that is whether her under-performing cabinet can become, at very least, a neutral factor in the election. So far this term they’ve been a source of steady slip-ups, which Ardern has had to step in and tidy up. That is not her strength; she comes across as defensive and head prefect-ish. And that, in turn, makes her unlikeable, which is Labour’s kryptonite. Therefore – to close the circle on this argument – Labour’s ministers need to perform well enough that Ardern can stay clean and clear of their messes. Cleaning up looks weak; setting the agenda looks strong. That’s why Ardern and her ministers are the flipside of the same coin. If they can discipline themselves and show competence, Ardern’s confidence and popularity will make them hard to beat. (NB ‘discipline’ is not the same as hunkering down, refusing to comment or debate and hiding away from voters. It’s engaging with the electorate in full command of your portfolio). On top of that, Grant Robertson has a sizeable war chest to find a couple of well-aimed policies to motivate both Labour’s base and swing voters.
National – It’s time for a full court press. Simon Bridges doesn’t have the voter cut-through to win it himself, so he will need a team effort that sees National’s shadow spokespeople putting pressure on their opposite numbers. Some fear this could get ugly, and that will depend on how far Bridges and his closest advisers are willing to go. Social media creates lots of new-fangled opportunities, but let’s not pretend the temptation to go low is anything new. The one and only time National got rid of a first-term Labour government, Robert Muldoon used the Dancing Cossacks ad campaign. And yes, it worked.
The key conundrum for National is that its strength while it was the incumbent is a weakness in Opposition. It has no allies of significance. It will hope ACT can grow sufficiently to make it relevant if the race is tight and it still seems to be pinning some long-shot hope on Sustainable New Zealand. But it can control little there; what it can control is its relationship with New Zealand First and that’s where it should be pre-emptive, ensuring there is no relationship at all. If both New Zealand First and the Greens fall below five percent and Shane Jones doesn’t win a seat in the North, National will likely win the election. One way to deny New Zealand First votes is to make it crystal clear to centre-right voters that ‘a vote for Winston is a vote for Labour and the Greens’. It’s hardly rocket science (it’s actually very simple maths), and while it may come to nothing, it’s a play that needs to be made sooner rather than later to maximise the impact and clarity of message.
Greens – The Green Party will, again, be everyone’s bogeyman. As noted above, National will attack New Zealand First for empowering them. New Zealand First will respond by saying they are the only handbrake on this band of loony lefties. So James Shaw & Co just need to dodge those rocks and stay on their own course. Happily for them, it’s pretty straight-forward, as long as their base allows them. And it’s all about letting Labour be Labour while they ensure they get 6-9 percent. First, they need to play to their usual policy strengths. The moment is right to abandon their Budget Responsibility Rules, with even business leaders urging the government to loosen the reins. They just need to do it in a way that doesn’t undo the years of work and make them look like irresponsible budget partners.
Second, they need to leverage the cannabis referendum to maximise the turn-out of its base. Chloe Swarbrick is obviously key to that. For the Greens, a two-tick strategy means encouraging you younger voters to turn-out in favour of cannabis and in favour of them.
New Zealand First – Obviously it all relies on Winston Peters. He will have to play a different game this year, especially if National rules out any possibility of a coalition. Can he and the party make it through the year without blowing up the government? Will they want to? Can they convince Labour to make room for Shane Jones in Northland after all the grief they’ve caused?
The party’s biggest challenge is to get voters to tick them over either of the two main parties and if National rules them out, then it comes down to their usefulness in another Labour-led coalition. Which means Winston this year needs to be known as Prevention Peters. As in, the man who can prevent the ‘inevitable’ Labour-led coalition from going too far. That’s why the party has spent this term building a solid track record doing precisely that. So expect more of the same from them this year.
ACT – The question for David Seymour is whether he can win another seat. The key factor he will be looking to control is leverage of his End of Life bill and its accompanying referendum. It will give him increased media attention and the chance to bring over some single issue voters to his cause. If the numbers look good enough for ACT and the race close enough, it could be a virtuous circle for the man from Epsom. Some on the right who like either his laissez-faire economics or his defense of free speech or gun rights could decide he’s the best way to boost of National’s chance of an upset. And they could be right.
In the end, though, it’s you and I as voters who have the most control on this contest. So it’s on us to pay attention, demand the best for this country and have our say come election day.