One of the top ten rules of politics is ‘never waste a crisis’. While they typically involve tragedy, even horror, for a group or indeed a whole nation, they offer opportunity to politicians. It’s not cynical or exploitative – at least it need not be. It’s simply a fact that citizens look for leadership in a crisis, just as rugby fans look for a dominant loosie in a World Cup. So a crisis is a leader’s chance to shine. Covid19 offers our politicians just such an opportunity.
A crisis like the coronavirus outbreak literally sets the scene, with the Prime Minister already cast in the main role. John Key was gifted both the Global Financial Crisis and the Christchurch earthquake; now Jacinda Ardern has had both the Christchurch mosque shootings and now this world-changing virus. This is Labour’s GFC, arguably with even more political opportunity. The two have similarities. A few are ‘infected’ and the driving concern is that the crisis breaks out from the few to the many. But Covid19 is already changing everyday lives – work lives, holidays, entertainment and our lifestyles – in a way the GFC didn’t.
And in truth it’s a test and opportunity not just for the leaders, but for all of us. It’s a time to see how we can adapt when the need is stark.
The comparison that leaps to mind is a war. No, we’re not expecting to lose millions of lives as in World War Two; this is an easier test. I make the comparison because of the extent of the impact. We have a common enemy and we need to dig deep, make sacrifices, fight hard to defeat it. Calls for a ‘blitz spirit’ response have been praised and mocked. True, this is no time to ‘keep calm and carry on’; that’s the wrong bit of ‘blitz spirit’ to cling to. Rather, it is time to do what is best for the common good, just as people did when they obeyed air-raid warnings, blacked out whole cities, bought bonds to build Spitfires and looked out for their neighbours.
Six months out from the election, this is now the defining issue for party leaders. Voters are most likely to entrust the country for the next three years to the leader and party who look most able to manage this crisis. Labour’s issues with competency and delivery will be seen now through the Covid19 lens; National’s planned attacks on its failure to deliver Kiwibuild and the like will have to be re-calibrated.
Which is why tomorrow’s economic package could be the biggest decision made by Labour this term. Hopefully longer. Jacinda Ardern got out in front of expectations at the weekend declaring it the “most significant” announcement she will make this term. For a Prime Minister who has had to respond to a terrorist attack on New Zealand’s “darkest day” that’s some choice of words. But no-one really disagrees. She has to get this right.
What makes it easier for the coalition government is that they can hardly promise too much. The economic impact of this virus will worm its way into just about every part of our economic life and wellbeing.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson has spent years fending off commentators like me saying that he’s wrong to have been so cautious with his spending plans and that there’s little reason to have debt levels amongst the lowest in the world. He has argued that New Zealand is a small country at the whim of global woes and we need to prepare for a rainy day. It’s the one thing on which he and Steven JKoyce have ever agreed. Well, it’s raining. Now’s the time.
There’s going to have to be wage support to help business keep staff on the books while they have little revenue coming in. Surely there will have to be some cash for people (especially contractors or the self-employed) being asked to self-isolate if that’s keeping them from earning a living or who have to stop working to look after sick relatives or children, should schools close. There will be need for direct support for businesses whose customer base has all-but evaporated in a few short days. There will need to be money for money’s sake to keep spending going. There will need to be some sort of bailout for Air New Zealand. Maybe for universities too. There will need to be money to help pickers keep picking and exporters keep exporting. There will even need to be support for the arts to stay on their feet while crowds stay away.
Liam offered some ideas yesterday.
Really, a government can’t do too much at this time. But they can still get it wrong.
While I’d be surprised if Labour doesn’t find a way to slip in some ongoing policy change, some universalism it would like to do anyway (just as National chose tax cuts as its form of economic stimulation in the GFC), as long as there’s an out-clause or a review period for its changes, it has political permission in these moments for just about anything.
The government has an opportunity to do things voters might otherwise quibble about; but that’s a dangerous trust. It’s not an excuse to over-reach or play politics. That’s the one thing that could backfire. Because crises can sometimes benefit for those who aren’t in charge to look like they should be. If we’re talking about the war, look at Winston Churchill.
Let’s be frank. Get this right and Labour could just about sew up the election. Not exactly settle the total vote or who the coalition partners will be, but it could box National into an impossible corner. But it’s no given; crises can be mishandled too.
Harking back to that blitz spirit, one of the best things the government could do is to urge us to play our part. People at these times are looking for a mission. Jacinda Ardern can summon her inner-JFK and ask us to ask ourselves what we can do for our country.
When Ardern says this package is the most significant announcement of her tenure as Prime Minister, she’s not wrong.