On different trajectories and from different ends of the political spectrum, last night’s One News/Colmar Brunton poll has the Green Party and ACT converging around the five percent mark. And, as odd as it may sound, they head into the election campaign with a lot in common.
Putting the Greens and ACT equal on five percent may be a bit generous to ACT in the wider scheme of things. You may have noticed this week that Pundit’s Poll of Polls has returned to the homepage, with all the 2020 polls entered into its algorithm. Much of the code for the old pages couldn’t be transferred from our old platform, but at least you can now again see where the parties sit through the campaign. The Poll of Polls was built back in 2009 and is “updated using elements of a poll aggregation method originally developed by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com”. (You can read more about the methodology here). Point is, the trend still has the Greens ahead of ACT, but both will look at that trend with a feeling of calm that eludes the other parties in parliament.
The Greens will look at polling trends this year with a confidence that they can avoid the curse of some smaller parties in government and look forward to a second term with much the same numbers as they achieved three years ago. ACT, with David Seymour safe in his Epsom electorate, can look forward to a term as more than a one-man band for the first time since 2008.
What’s interesting is that at the heart of their success is a lack of shenanigans and the look of stability. While we’re still talking comparatively small, minor party numbers, many thousands of New Zealanders seem willing to reward a serious approach to politics with their party vote.
The Greens waited years for a chance to be in government, held back not only by Labour’s ineptitude in Opposition, but by the public perception (ably encouraged by their opponents and their own occasional rogue member) that they were too flaky and hippy-ish to be trusted with actual ministries and public funds. For three years they have in large part held their discipline and, while New Zealand First has played merry politics alongside them, the Greens have managed to look like the grown-ups of the coalition partners.
They can point their base to tangible gains in climate and transport - most significantly, the Zero Carbon Act - and their more swing supporters to their stable presence in government.
ACT, from the other side of the House and the political spectrum, look to be benefiting from a similar approach. Having raised his profile with the risky appearance on Dancing with the Stars, David Seymour has since got down to business and stuck to the issues. Not the issues of libertarian economics that perhaps the most devoted ACT supporters would have wanted, but still issues bound to ACT’s core belief in “choice”. ACT’s individual rights message has been clear to see in his positions on freedom of speech, gun rights and, most notably, his End of Life bill that would legalise euthanasia.
Both parties have a legislative achievement to hang their hat on and a commitment to serious issues at a time when scandal has been dominating the headlines. They have avoided the debates not just about sex, lies and leaks that have bedevilled National and Labour, but also the fund-raising toxicity that has so tarnished New Zealand First (as well as National and, to a lesser extent, Labour).
There is, however, one big difference between the two. ACT’s five percent looks like a ceiling, while the Green’s five percent looks like a floor. Seymour has benefited from National’s rapid changes of leadership and shady politics. But as Collins takes up more air-time during the campaign and stabilises the party, you’d expect some of the discontented National vote toying with ACT to settle back on the major party. Although we’re yet to see the reality of a Collins-led party, the perception is that she is on the right or drier end of the party. Those with similar views may have preferred ACT over a Muller-Kaye National Party, but now be more confident in staying true to the blue.
Seymour I’m sure will point to the rise in ACT’s numbers pre-dating National’s disastrous few months as a sign he is winning true converts, not just soft National supporters looking for a more consistent, considered party. Such high support for Labour could work for or against ACT - convincing some on the centre-right to boost National to ensure a strong Opposition but giving permission to others to vote with their heart rather than their head, if they decide National has no chance of actually winning. For all that - and for all National’s mis-steps - it’s hard to see Collins not being able to reclaim some ground over the coming weeks. If New Zealand First can also gain traction with its ‘handbrake on the government’ strategy, it too may chip away at ACT’s current level of support.
The Greens, on the other hand, are likely to benefit from Labour’s lead and New Zealanders’ love of strategic voting as the election approaches. Centre-left voters, if they are confident Ardern & Co will not be toppled by a resurgent National, will start to think not just about winning, but about the shape of the next government. If Labour maintains a decent lead, expect some of its supporters who want it to be more progressive or more green to make a strategic switch.
While it’s a long way from the giddy Green heights of early 2017 when Labour was at its nadir, the party can only be relieved that a dominant Jacinda Ardern hasn’t driven them below five percent. And they can dare to hope to benefit from both the referendums at this year’s election and Chloe Swarbrick’s candidacy in Auckland Central.
So while Colmar Brunton has ACT and the Greens neck and neck and benefitting from the shenanigans going on around them, both parties could move a bit yet before election day.